What's Next for House Committee on Intelligence?

Fresh from their head-line grabbing investigation of Chinese Telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE, Chairman Mike Rogers and Ranking Member C.A. Ruppersberger of House Select Committee on Intelligence (the spy kind and not related to IQ kind) announced that the Committee will next investigate how the Chinese acquisition of AMC Theaters will adversely affect national security.

AMC is the second largest chain of cinema theaters in North America with over 5300 screens. Each screen is a potential conduit for messages to corrupt our American youth, Chairman Rogers said.

Studies have shown that flashing subliminal messages at the moviegoers in between frames can induce involuntary purchase of soda pop and junk food. The Committee intends to ask Dalian Wanda, the acquirer, if the company intends to insidiously suggest to the American audience to gorge on chop suey.

The Committee also intends to ask Dalian Wanda as to its connection to the Chinese government and the PLA. Given that the company is based in the city where Bo Xilai was once mayor, we can presume the company has unsavory intentions and the Committee intends to find out what that is.

Dalian Wanda might offer to let an independent third party vet all the prospective projectionists before they are hired but that proposal will be rejected by the Committee. It will be too easy for the Chinese owner to slip in secret agents while the operating projectionists go on bathroom breaks and insert messages that turn the minds of American youth into mush. (Thanks to video games from Japan, the minds of American young people are already in a fragile state but that's a topic for another investigation.)

Chairman Rogers regrets that he did not initiate similar investigations when Wanxiang began to acquire auto parts companies in the US, including many in his home state of Michigan. Now Wanxiang USA is probably too big to tackle.

While the acquisitions saved many of those companies from going out of business and thus kept many employed, there is no telling what dastardly deeds that can be done to undermine the security of the US. For instance, spare auto parts could be manipulated to fail when put into American made cars and thus give Chinese cars an unfair economic advantage.

Sensors on the auto parts can be designed to send sensitive intelligence (the spy kind, not the smarts kind) back to Beijing and we wouldn’t even know it. For instance, the sensor could be telling Beijing that certain Senator is not at the office but his car is parked in his mistress’s garage.

As investigations by the Cox Committee have proven a decade or so earlier, every entity from China registered in the US is spying on us. If we begin on the presumption that the Chinese are up to no good, we will be able to sleep better at nights.

The House Select Committee on Intelligence (the spy kind not related to intelligence) intends to safeguard our national security. We stand on the premise that we don’t want the Chinese here and we don’t want Chinese investments here. They can take their American dollars and invest elsewhere.

This pseudo press release with tongue firmly planted in the cheek may seem ludicrous but is inspired by the actions of the House Committee on Huawei and ZTE and the pervasive paranoia currently afflicting American politics.

Let a Japanese Professor Explain the East China Sea Dispute

It has come to my attention that a well respected scholar from Japan, Professor Yabuki, has spoken about the dispute involving the Diaoyu/Senkaku controversy. One fascinating pieces of information is that Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been hiding certain facts of the meeting in 1971 between Japan's Prime Minister Tanaka and China's Zhou Enlai. Non-disclosure has allowed Japan to insist on certain denials and perpetuate the difference in China's position vs. Japan's current position.

A Typical Wrong Headed American View of the East China Sea Dispute

A young American entrepreneur based in Shanghai wrote an op-ed piece about the dispute between China and Japan over the islands in the East China Sea that is typical of American hubris and lack of familiarity with recent world history. Like most American pundits, Nance failed to address the US role complicit in creating the origin of the dispute in East China Sea. 

According to the terms of unconditional surrender demanded by the leaders of the Allies and accepted by Japan to end WWII, Japan gave up any claims to the islands in dispute with China, Korea and Russia. Korea and Russia took possession but China was not allowed to do so by the US because of an altered geopolitical landscape after the War.

In 1972, when the US returned administrative control of Okinawa to Japan, which was already contrary to the terms of surrender, the US compounded the wrong by including Diaoyu/Senkaku islands as part of the package. Whether this was done deliberately or not is a debate for another occasion, but the US must accept responsibility for causing the lingering dispute.

If it was in the US national interest to overlook Japan's lot as the defeated nation then, surely it is in our national interest to reconsider what's good for America now. I believe what's right and good for America is to acknowledge and retract a mistake that was made then and that the US will not side with Japan on this issue now. Once that declaration has been made, I am convinced that the tension will die down quickly.

I wrote my views on this matter on an earlier post.

The US must stay out of East China Sea Dispute

Further to my blog at the end of last month, Ignatius Ding, a noted Silicon Valley activist, has elaborated on the historical and legal perspective of the dispute between China and Japan, worth reading by all concerned Americans. This has been posted in the San Jose Mercury News.

The U.S. Must Avoid the Trap on East China Sea

Recently a strange “issue advocacy ad” appeared in the Wall Street Journal paid for by the Tokyo Metropolitan government. The gist of the ad is to tell the American people that the Tokyo government intends to purchase certain islands in East China Sea and is seeking American “understanding and support.”

The islands in question are ostensibly to be purchased from some private Japanese owner so one would wonder why American support is worthy of such attention-grabbing ploy. It turns out that there is a lot more to this story than meets the eye and the person orchestrating this scheme is none other than Shintaro Ishihara, the governor of Tokyo.

Ishihara is a rabid right-wing nationalist previously known for giving America the middle finger salute in the ‘80s when he wrote the book, The Japan that Can Say No. He is despised by China and other Asian nations for prominently denying that the Nanjing Massacre and other WWII atrocities were ever committed by the Japanese imperial troops.

The string of islands Ishihara wants to buy are located north of Taiwan, referred to as Senkaku by the people in Japan and as Diaoyu by the people in China, Taiwan and the Chinese diaspora over the world. These islands are geologically connected to Taiwan and separate from the geological formation that makes up the Ryukyu (or Okinawan) island chain.

Japan claimed possession of the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands since 1894 when the islands were made part of the Okinawa prefecture. But China had, since the 14^th century, administered the islands as a part of Taiwan. These islands were ceded to Japan along with Taiwan in 1895 when the Qing forces lost the war with Japan.

At the end of WWII, according to the agreement struck by the leaders of the victorious Allies, Taiwan was returned to China and these islands should have been included. But for strategic reasons, the U.S. held onto these islands until 1972, at which time, the US handed these islands to Japan along with the Okinawan chain of islands.

There was no historical or geological justification for the regrettable American action. Instead, the action has directly led to the festering dispute between China and Taiwan on the one side and Japan on the other. Ishihara exploited this bone of contention to embarrass his own national government and raise the tension between China and Japan. The ad in the Wall Street Journal was his attempt to enlarge the dispute and bring the US into the boil.

Indeed, Ishihara has raised the temperature of the confrontation between the foreign affair ministries of China and Japan. Japan has had to recall its ambassador to Beijing and change to one less sympathetic to China. Cities in China raged with citizen protests, in some cases overturning Japanese branded police cars and smashing Japanese storefronts. Among the greater China, messages condemning Japan filled the Internet.

A group of activists from Hong Kong recently braved stormy seas to land at one of the islands to plant a flag of China. Their subsequent arrest by the Japanese coast guard was followed by immediate demand for release by the Beijing and Hong Kong governments. Prompt release without formal charges by Japan was then met with vocal disapproval from the Ishihara followers.

The American public needs to know that the Chinese reaction on these islands, whether from China, Taiwan or the diaspora around the world, is deeply rooted from a half century of humiliation suffered at the hands of Japanese imperialism. Since Japan has never formally apologized for the many atrocities committed by their imperial troops, the Chinese people cannot forget.

The squabble may seem trivial to the American policymakers but it is a tremendously emotional one for the Chinese people. Time and again it has been shown that it does not take much for the Chinese to react viscerally to any provocation instigated by Japan. There have been incidents of high seas chicken between fishing boats from China and Taiwan versus the coast guard cutters from Japan, each accusing the other for initiating the hostile bump and run. The incendiary nature of these incidents can quickly get out of hand, escalate into shooting conflicts and rage out of the control of either government.

The US State Department is aware of the sensitivity surrounding the islands but is playing the role of strategic ambiguity badly. The islands should never have been handed to Japan administratively. To this date, State Department spokesperson has to awkwardly demur when asked if the US security pact with Japan includes these uninhabited islands and avoid publicly stating as to which country is the rightful owner.

To make sure that the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands do not become a flash point for escalation into large scale armed conflict, the U.S. must inform Japan in no uncertain terms that America will never go to war over disputes of these islands. By unequivocally taking the US out of the ring, provocateurs like Ishihara will not find the dry flint needed to set the ownership issue aflame. This is an important first step to cooling down the emotions and allows diplomacy between China and Japan to find resolution.

An updated version was posted in New America Media.

Africa is too cozy with China to Suit the West

On July 19, South African President Jacob Zuma opened the 5th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, held in Beijing, with a warm and effusive address about China's relationship with Africa.

Zuma even cited Admiral Zheng He's visits to the African continent as the beginning of a beautiful friendship. Even though he was off by a few hundred years, Zuma was undoubtedly expressing admiration for the Chinese that came to trade for a few giraffes to take back to Beijing--unlike the Europeans that later came to rape and pillage and kidnap natives for the slave trade.

By simply altering the sequence of Zuma's speech, the Financial Times adroitly changed the tone of his speech into one that "warns" China that all was not well, implying that China was as guilty of exploiting Africa as the European predecessors. The Washington Post shamefully reprinted the FT piece without any revision.

We have been led to believe that major publications in mainstream media have a public responsibility to be accurate and objective. They are supposed to inform their readers and not to pander to known biases nor reinforce preconceived but erroneous notions.

In other words, their job is not to merely tell the reader what they think the reader wants to hear.

Fortunately, in this case President Zuma's speech has been posted in its entirety by the South African government so that the reader can compare what he actually said to how his speech was reported.

There were certain passages in Zuma’s speech that failed to be included in the Financial Times piece.

“We are particularly pleased that in our relationship with China we are equals and that agreements entered into are for mutual gain.  This gathering (referring to the Forum) indicates commitment to mutual respect and benefit.”

Then Zuma went on to declare, “We certainly are convinced that China’s intention is different to that of Europe, which to date continue to attempt to influence African countries for their sole benefit.”

Zuma in the same speech then said, “Over the last decade, and partly because of China’s unrelenting support, the African continent has seen tremendous growth rates, making it one of the fastest growing continents and certainly the next growth pole. Furthermore, global growth estimates suggests that Africa’s growth will continue in an upward trend for years to come.”

Does the above sound like Zuma was complaining about China’s treatment of Africa?

Certainly not, according to what Zuma went on to say, “In particular, we take note of the infrastructure development China has assisted Africa with in the past several years.

“ African continent is now being seen as a major player in global affairs, and is becoming more attractive to investors and development partners.  

“Indeed, this is proving to be Africa’s decade of change.”

President Zuma basically concluded his speech by calling on China to continue to be Africa’s partner in meeting future challenges.

Along with helping Africa build its infrastructure, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s biggest trading partner.

Unlike the US, China does not give foreign aid with or without strings. True to its policy of non-interference, China does not tell the African nations what to do, nor make suggestions on rectifying human rights abuses.

Ironically, a recent op-ed in the New York Times by a Zambian economist argued that foreign aid tend to line the pockets of corrupt dictators while trade and infrastructure investments were more likely to benefit the general population and thus empowering the populace to hold their government accountable.

The same economist reported that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had warned Africa to be aware of new form of colonialism, an obvious but oblique reference to the presence of China in Africa.

It’s hard to know if Secretary Clinton truly believed that Africans would find her credible or if she were merely mouthing a party line that she knew her American constituents would want to hear.

The End of the Dollar is Neigh

While Congress is wringing their collective hands over US Olympian uniforms that are made in China and incumbent president Obama and presumptive challenge Romney are mud wrestling over who has sent more jobs offshore, along comes another observation on the doom of the dollar. This article gives eleven reasons why the role of the dollar as a global reserve currency is about to end.

I have been tracking currency swaps that China has entered with other nations. The aforementioned article points out that China is not the only country making this trade provision that would by-pass the need to hold onto dollars.

No one in the mainstream media seems to be following this global trend of shying away from the dollar nor examining the consequence to the American economy when the value of the dollar plummets and inflation grabs the consumer by the throat. 

Condemning Olympic Apparel Made in China: Another Tempest in a Teapot Brewed by Congress

Congress is tackling yet another crisis of gargantuan proportions. They are upset that the spiffy outfits the American Olympic team will wear at the opening ceremony while designed by Ralph Lauren are (gasp) made in China.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was outraged and declared that all the uniforms should be burned and just let the athletes wear singlets with hand painted logo of USA. Members of Congress from both sides of the aisle jumped in to castigate the Olympic Committee for failing to buy American.

A representative of the American garment industry pointed out that at about $1500 to outfit each athlete, the committee could easily have sourced the apparel from US makers.

What the person did not point out was that a made-in-the-USA outfit would have taken out the entire margin of the opening wear--a margin that the committee undoubtedly intended as part of their fund raising effort.

Just go on to the official website of the US Olympic Committee and one can see all kinds of “official” souvenir gear from berets to shirts and blazers available for fans to purchase. If the apparel were made in the USA and still affordably priced to sell, the committee would not raise much money, if any.

Unlike some countries, such as China, where Olympic participation enjoys state financial support, the US Olympians will go to London through donations and private sector fund raising efforts.

The US government, even if it wanted to, does not have the money to finance the Olympians. Members of Congress surely know all this.

Since much of what Americans wear are made in China, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. But when it became known that the Olympian garb was also from China, it was a no risk, no cost, no downside, and no brainer opportunity to take a pot shot at the Olympic Committee and vilify once again things made in China.

In the meantime, disaster looms as America hurtles towards the “fiscal cliff” at yearend. That’s when tax cuts expire and mandated government spending cuts begin.

While all the economists and pundits are certain that such a combination will result in the next economic disaster for the US, they are also certain that no one in Washington has the political courage or vision to enact anything meaningful that would stop the runaway train.

Such has the state of our democracy become: Terrifically adept at jumping into petty minutia but cowardly absent when it comes to tackling real issues confronting the future well-being of this country.

To conform to Senator Reid’s wishes, the standard bearer leading the US delegation into the opening ceremony in London should wear nothing (made in China), just a G-string with a made-in-USA label emblazoned to the extent possible.

Such a spectacle will convey several concurrent messages to the worldwide viewers: Washington kingmakers have no clothes and no statesmanship, and America is a poor country in more ways than one. 

See another version in New America Media. The LA Times carried the astonished view of the controversy from China.

Ukraine is Next on Swap Deal with China

Ukraine's central bank has entered into a currency swap deal with China. The deal at approximately yuan 15 billion is not big as size goes but a significant development in other aspects. Ukraine sees this deal as a commitment for close bilateral cooperation.

Ukraine is also about to conclude a swap deal with Russia and restart negotiation with Belarus. Other countries have announced bilateral currency swap deals not involving China. This is clearly a global trend to minimize exposure to holding American dollars.

My last blog on this subject picks up the thread on my tracking of China's currency swaps.

China's Latest Swap Agreement is with Brazil

Some call this currency swap deal, between China and Brazil, to be the biggest one yet by China with a value of about $30 billion. The swap deal is part of a broad, long term bilateral cooperation between the two countries.

Since I have been keeping track, this is the first swap agreement China has entered with another member nation of BRICS, the others being Russia, India and South Africa.

Of course, while China has no formal swap agreement with Japan, their publicly announced agreement to settle their trade in their own currency and bypass converting into dollars is potentially a much bigger deal than the swap deal with Brazil just by virtue of the magnitude of their bilateral trade, well north of $300 billion annually.

Many have speculated on the significance of China's gradual introduction of the renminbi as an international currency.

Internationalization of the Renminbi

Speaking of collateral damage, an interesting discussion of the gradual replacement of the dollar by the renminbi has come to my attention from, of all places, Australia. The author sees savings accounts denominated in dollars as "collateral damage" when the dollar is displaced by the renminbi.

When should you begin to stuff renminbi under your mattress? Now. When will you be glad that you did? The author thinks it could come as soon as 36 months. Maybe not says China central banker, but let the market decide.

I have been monitoring this situation since I wrote about the bilateral swap agreements and plan to continue to do so. See also my April post on related matter between the renminbi and the yen. Certainly China-Japan bilateral trade represents a significant part of global trade and the significance of settlement that by-passes the dollar has been published  by several sources recently.

See this twit for a recent comprehensive explanation of the benefits of swap agreements: The BRIC Currency Swap Proposal Is A Global Game Changer http://read.bi/L221R5

America's Drone Warfare Trivializes the Meaning of Collateral Damage

Collateral damage used to connote unfortunate, accidental, regrettably unintentional death and destruction committed in the quest of accomplishing a greater good--admittedly a doubtful and shaky definition to begin with. When collateral damage becomes routine, massive, indiscriminate and random, the consequences deserve more thought than simply dismissing the incident as, oh well, another dead innocent civilian or two or three or tens and hundreds.

Use of drones can come back and bite our collective ass. See arguments presented on why drone warfare is illegal.

Drone warfare is unlikely to become a topic of presidential campaign and debate but thoughtful Americans, perhaps a contradiction in terms, need to think deeply about this practice before the joystick jockeys wearing uniforms begin to think of this exercise as just another video game.

Reflections from travel through Central Asia

An intrepid world traveler most likely won’t find a tour of central Asia daunting, but others just might. Unless you are accustomed to dealing with border crossing that require schlepping all your personal baggage across long no-man’s land—barbed wire fences, check points manned by steely-eyed soldiers carrying rifle, some with fixed bayonets, that speak no English—this would be the lowlight of the tour you don’t need.

Ironically, central Asia used to be a vast, open but loosely defined region that separated the European kingdoms in the west and the mysterious Cathay in the east. Today, this region is artificially divided into countries, all ending in “-stan:” Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. (Afghanistan is also part of Central Asia, but not presently recommended for even the intrepid traveler.) The Stans became independent countries upon the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991 and they apparently took the borders created for them by Stalin in the 1920’s very seriously. Crossing from one Stan to another is strictly monitored and controlled.

Mountain range as seen from a Bishkek hotel

Before spending three weeks visiting the “5 Stans,” I thought of central Asia as a place of camel caravans trekking over endless deserts. I was to find the image off the mark. While the western part of central Asia is arid and dominated by deserts, the eastern part contains snow-capped mountain ranges, tree-ringed alpine lakes, lush valleys and rivers nurturing vast grasslands. Mother nature made sure I revised my understanding of central Asia by drenching my travel companions and me in sudden torrential downpour while we were in Tashkent, Samarkand and Ashgabat, about 1000 miles apart. 

This part of the world was home to fabled empires at different times and overlapping territories that belonged to such ancient people as Scythians, Parthians, Sogdians, Bactrians and Kushans. Much of their cultures have been lost over time abetted periodically by total massacre and destruction in the hands of ruthless invaders resulting in a consequent loss of historical continuity. It shouldn’t be surprising—though I was initially—that we found frequent mention of Chinese sources to establish and authenticate the archeological finds on display in the museums we visited. Neighboring China, after all, has uninterrupted historical records that kept track of the interactions China had with various peoples in the west.

One of the museums attributed “the ambassador from China in 109 BC” as the beginning of trading on the Silk Road between China through central Asia and the West. I was thrilled by this apparent reference to Zhang Qian, the emissary sent by Han Wudi to form alliances with the kingdoms in central Asia. Zhang Qian is an important historical figure well known to school children in China. At first I thought the reference was an independent validation of the years he spent in central Asia, but upon further reflection, I asked myself, was it merely another citation of the same Chinese historical source?

Invasion by Alexander from Macedon around 330 BC became the first major defining event for this region. In his campaign against the Persian Empire, he ran over most of central Asia in part because his opponents didn’t know how to overcome soldiers marching in phalanx formation, the leading warfare technology in its day. When he got to the capital of Sogdiana, near today’s Khujand in Tajikistan—as the local guide related to us—he met fierce resistance, which he solved by marrying Roxanne, the princess of the local king. Thus a romantic story from the ancient era was born. The influence of Greek culture to central Asia and beyond to India and China can be attributed to Alexander’s conquest.

Statue of El Khoresm in Khiva

The Arabs invaded this region in the 7^th century and conversion of the people to Islam began. The Arabs also introduced great Islamic architecture and science and mathematics, the former such as the invention of the double dome structure found in mosques, mausoleums and madrassas. The many structures we saw were ancestors to the Taj Mahal built in India many hundred years later. Khiva proudly displays a stature of al-Khwarizmi, who wrote the definitive book on algebra, as their native son. The word algorithm in computer science was derived from his name. 

The Mongolian invasion led by Genghis Khan in the 12^th century was the next cataclysmic disaster to strike this region. He left a wake of annihilation and destruction in his path as he swept through on his way to Europe. Much the memory of the people and evidence of their culture were erased by the Mongols. Our guide in Kunya Urgench explained that the tragic outcome could have been averted save for a grievous misunderstanding. Genghis Khan had sent emissaries to the emir then seated near Kunya Urgench to establish trade relations. The emir got bad counsel and looked down on the unwashed horsemen and beheaded them. A furious Genghis then mounted a fierce assault that eventually overcame the fortress.

Annihilation of the population and leveling of the city was a customary practice to intimidate the next opponent and convince them that surrender to avoid slaughter was a wiser alternative. Genghis was not the first to use this practice. Alexander did the same some 1500 years earlier when he invaded southern parts of Greece.

The next ruthless ruler to dominate central Asia was Timur, whose detractors derisively called Timur the lame, which in the West became Tamerlane. Timur was home grown from a village outside of Samarkand who rose to conquer much of this region roughly a century and a half after Genghis Khan. He made Samarkand his capitol and built a great city for posterity. He also destroyed other cities and kingdoms that rivaled his power, such as the kingdom of Khorezm based in Khiva. At its peak, Timur’s empire rival in size to that of Genghis Khan and Alexander. In 1405, nearing 70, he died on the road as he was preparing to invade China. The threat of his invasion was said to lead to Cheng Ho’s sailing the seven seas as the Ming Emperor sought alliances that might mitigate the threat of Timur.

Peter the Great had designs on this region as early as 1717 but took the Russian military another 150 years to conquer and incorporate central Asia into its empire. After the Bolshevik Revolution, central Asia became part of USSR. To discourage insurrection and large-scale rebellion, Stalin somewhat arbitrarily divided this region into the aforementioned 5 Stans. At the time, each autonomous region had to have a minimum 1 million population and over 50% belonging to one ethnic group, such as Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Turkmen and Uzbek. Some of the borders, reminiscent of the fine art of gerrymandering in the US, reflect the need to meet the criteria.

Ivory rhyton on display at Hermitage

Central Asia was the prize Russia won in the Great Game over Great Britain. There were pluses and minuses attributable to their occupation. Under Tsarist Russia, there weren’t much respect paid to the cultural artifacts and madrassas, for example, were converted from being religious schools to stables and warehouses. The Soviets began to paid attention to the artifacts buried in the many ruins in central Asia and excavate some of these sites. Much of World Heritage sites and other archeological gems that we can see today owe their existence to the recovery and restoration efforts by Soviet archeologists. On the other hand, just as some of the finest art found in British colonial past are in the British Museum in London, so it is that some of the best finds in central Asia are on display in the Hermitage in St. Petersburg. The ivory rhyton at right was found from the Nisa ruins outside of Ashgabat, now on display at the Hermitage, similar ones are also on display at the National Museum of History in Ashgabat.

The preceding sketch of the history of this region is no where comprehensive and perhaps not even precise but is, I believe, a minimum framework necessary to understand today’s central Asia.

           

On the tour, the most striking thing I noticed was the people of central Asia. They come in all sizes, shapes and coloration and as non-homogeneous as one can imagine. Some are blond and pale and some look Asian, but most seem to fall in gradations somewhere in between. They could be easily mistaken for someone from Mexico, or Morocco or Iran or Egypt or India or Italy. Remarkably, they mix and mingle and seem oblivious to differences between themselves. I could not detect any ethnic sensitivity or tension as we mingle with them on the streets and bazaars. In various times, nomads from Siberia, Mongolia, Manchuria and western China have migrated or passed through from the east, as have people from Russia and Ukraine from the north and Turks and Greeks from the west and Persians from the south. With such a long period of intermingling, perhaps it’s natural that they stopped noticing the differences among themselves.

Even though the dominant religion is Islam, the people’s attitude is quite secular. Few pray five times a day, most consider themselves devout if they regularly pray on Fridays. During the three weeks we were there, we did not hear the call to prayer even once, unlike our experience in other Islamic countries. Perhaps this is a legacy from the Soviet era when practice of religion was actively discouraged.

           

Another Soviet influence is the universally accepted notion that education is important, even for women. Free public education through the 9^th grade seems to be the norm in all the Stans. Every tour guide seemed quite proud of their national university and seemed perplexed that I would asked if the university had any foreign students. (The answer was they do not.)

The sudden dissolution of the Soviet Union seemed to have left the Stans poorly prepared for nationhood. All gravitated to some form of strong man government, and, except for Kyrgyzstan, have enjoyed the support of the population to varying degrees. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, the first two presidents were thrown out of office, the third, a woman, accepted the emergency appointment for one year and voluntarily stepped down for the next elected president.

Economic development among the 5 Stans seems uneven, largely dependent on whether or not the particular country possesses deposits of oil and gas to subsidize the economy. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have plenty of oil and gas and thus have stable economies. Uzbekistan does not and is wrestling with ongoing inflation. The official exchange rate is 1800 som to a dollar. At restaurants, if you offer to pay in dollars, they offer a black market rate as high as 2850 to a dollar. Kyrgyzstan is rich in water and natural scenery and Tajikistan is the least economically developed of the five.

           

Uzbekistan’s attempt to control inflation is apparently to exert tight monetary control. We were told that the daily receipts of enterprises, large and small, are collected by the state at the end of the day and deposited in the state-owned banks. This would allow the state to monitor and control the circulation of their currency but apparently the state can’t help resorting to printing more currencies as their remedy. The consequence is that everybody carry wads of 1,000 som bills and are experts at counting stacks of bills quickly and accurately. On a flight from Urgench to Tashkent, I happened to stand next the interpreter for a World Bank team visiting the country. I asked her if the World Bank was recommending an open economy that welcomes foreign direct investment, she agreed that would be a step forward.

China’s influence in the local economies is readily evident. The bathroom amenities as well as the sinks and toilet bowls in many hotels are from China. In the bazaars, used fertilizer bags from China are popular for holding whatever commodities the stall operator is selling. In Bishkek, I bought an electrical plug converter for the equivalent of $1.10, made in China of course. That little purchase was essential to power my iPad, mobile phone and camera for the rest of my trip.

The roads in 5 Stans are extremely uneven. New roads are excellent. A JV, we were told, built the toll road from the border to Khujand in Tajikistan, with a Chinese company. While driving from Bishkek to Lake Issyk-Kye, we were mostly on a road still under construction. When completed, it was going to be a major arterial highway from Kyrgyzstan to China. At a roadside restaurant, I was delighted to take over from our guide and ordered a Chinese meal from a menu with dishes written in Chinese.

Group photo of American travelers with Uzbeks in Tashkent

           

This part of the world has not seen many tourists from America. When they asked and found out that we were from the US, we were invariably greeted with warm, welcoming smiles. In Uzbekistan, especially the young people loved to have their photos taken with us, the American tourists, and they would frequently approach the women of our group and ask for group photos with us. We felt like celebrities. The people in Tajikistan loved to have their photos taken by our camera and were pleased to see their images on our camera. The people of Turkmenistan were more formal and distant and did not encourage taking of photos. 

Driving into Ashgabat, we saw gleaming white marble office buildings, white marble apartment towers, spectacular monuments, broad boulevards and fountains everywhere. Being the capitol of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat was probably the most ostentatious, but the other major cities that we drove through also contained spectacularly looking edifices. On the other hand, the highways between the cities are not in good condition and rather than drive, it was quite inexpensive to fly, under $20 per person from Mary to Ashgabat and from Ashgabat to Dashogus. Fuel in oil-rich Turkmenistan must be quite cheap.

When we got to Samarkand, one of the first stops was to visit a family still making paper from the fibers of the mulberry tree in the traditional way, i.e., by manual labor. I found an interesting historical footnote related to this stop. I discovered that Samarkand was the first place to make paper outside of China and they learned papermaking from the Chinese prisoners of war because of a pivotal battle that took place in 751 AD. Taking place in the valley of Talas in today’s Kyrgyzstan, a force of soldiers from Tang court fought a force led by the Arabs. The Chinese suffered a devastating defeat as some 2000 soldiers were taken prisoner; among them were skilled craftsmen who knew how to make paper and pottery. Thus was how the papermaking technology was transferred to the west.

While largely forgotten, it has been argued that this battle had a major impact on history. After this battle, the Tang court turned away from central Asia and lost interest in advancing its sphere of influence westward. Even though the Arabs won the battle, the logistical challenge of supporting their army over great distances may have also discourage their expansionary ambitions. They too turned away to consolidate their control in central Asia. I recently came across an article that discussed this historic battle more fully here. 

Travel tips, if you decide to visit central Asia:

All the electrical outlets use the two round pin configuration. If you don’t have an adapter at home, you can easily buy one in bazaars and street-side stalls upon arrival.

Most of the major stops on the Silk Road are in Uzbekistan. So if you would rather not deal with the hassle of crossing borders by foot, just book your tour for Uzbekistan.

As you enter Uzbekistan be ready to accurately complete the customs form and declare the amount of currency you are bringing in. Avoid hassle by making sure that you report no increase in the amount of currency you are taking out on departure.

Travel as light as you can and make sure your luggage has sturdy wheels. Perhaps because of perceived threat to airport security, cars and buses are not allowed to drive up to the terminal door. Instead, you are dropped off some distance away and have to haul your luggage to the terminal.

Bring plenty of US currency in small denominations, which will be handy to make purchases and as gratuity. The bills should be in good condition free from tears and unsightly wrinkles.

Hygiene standards are quite high everywhere we went. We ate fresh fruits, cucumbers and tomatoes and none of us got sick.

Do bring along an umbrella.

We booked our tour with East Site Travel, based in New Jersey with offices in the 5 Stans. You will find their website interesting and informative.

For those of you interested in more photos and less verbiage, I have produced a photo book on Shutterfly that you are welcome to access and view.

Comment on Bilateral Relations of China and Russia

This is interview took place on April 28, 2012

http://old.rt.com/v/Upload/george-koo.asf

America: Get Ready for Big Money in Presidential Politics

"The big money in U.S. presidential politics is about to get a whole lot bigger," ran the lead sentence of the article in April 14 issue of The Global Edition of The New York Times.

Both Obama and Romney are gearing up for serious fund raising campaigns, each fund raising event to garner a million dollars or more. When the dust finally settles and the next president is elected, the total amount spent on this political campaign will exceed $2 billion, perhaps even $3 billion depending who is doing the counting and what is being included in the tally.

So, in this exercise of sham-o-cracy, which is more important, your vote or your checkbook?

Is this the model of democracy, proudly made in America, that other nations should aspire to?

Who's kidding who?