Thursday, March 22, 2001

Commentary for Pacific Time, KQED, 88.5 FM

In preparing to meet with Vice Premier Qian Qichen from Beijing, President George W. Bush and his administration is facing a major challenge in foreign policy. Since the outcome of the administration’s handling of this bi-lateral relationship could mean the difference between peace or war, stability or strife, economic growth or stagnation, a lot is at stake. And, no issue is more sensitive and explosive than whither Taiwan.

Historically, culturally, ethnically and linguistically, Taiwan has always been a part of China. Today, approximately half a million professionals and executives from Taiwan are living and working on the mainland, some are even employed as senior executives in mainland firms. Taiwan investments already employ over 3% of the mainland workforce and increasing. Every year more than 30% of Taiwan’s population leave the island for a vacation; about half of them head for the mainland. Cultural affinity and ethnic roots account for the economic ties and recreational pilgrimage. [Everywhere on the mainland, one can see Taiwan influence from eating places to entertainment palaces to electronic factories.]* The synergy across the Taiwan strait is palpable. At the people to people level, there exists a common desire for a peaceful resolution.

For America to now sell advanced weapons or a theatre missle defense system to Taiwan is exactly the wrongheaded thing to do. Such actions would rachet up the cross strait tension, destroy the on-going harmony and ruin any chance for a peaceful reconciliation. Taiwan is already the second largest arms buyer in the world. As is, she is plenty equiped to deter any temptation towards a lose-lose military solution.

The people of Taiwan and the mainland need the space and quietude to resolve their differences. The U.S. cannot dictate the outcome, not even act as a mediator across the straits. As in any family squabble, the best approach is for the U.S. to “leave the room" and let the two sides reach settlement without outside interference, all the while insist that the ultimate resolution must be a peaceful one.

Needless to say this suggested approach by the Bush administration will take courage but will win the eternal gratitude of all the people of the world.

Historically, culturally, ethnically and linguistically, Taiwan has always been a part of China. During the height of the presidential election last year, a poll of Taiwanese revealed that only 2.5% wanted independence right away and 15% sooner or later.

Today, approximately half a million professionals and executives from Taiwan are living and working on the mainland, some are even employed as senior executives in mainland firms.

Taiwan businesses already employ over 3% of the mainland workforce..and more join every day.

Half of all Taiwanese who go off the island for holidays go to the mainland.

The synergy across the Taiwan strait is palpable at the people to people level.

For America to now sell advanced weapons or a theatre missle defense system to Taiwan is exactly the wrongheaded thing to do. It would rachet up the cross strait tension, destroy harmony and ruin any chance for a peaceful reconciliation.

Further, Taiwan is already the second largest arms buyer in the world.

So it is well-equipped to deter any Chinese temptation to try a military solution.

The people of Taiwan and the mainland need the space and quiet to resolve their differences. The U.S. cannot dictate the outcome, not even act as a mediator across the straits.

As in any family squabble, the best approach is for the U.S. to "leave the room", and let the two sides reach settlement without outside interference. All Washington can do is make it clear that any solution must be peaceful.

For Pacific Time, I'm George Koo