美國自動導航進入自毀之途

Published in SingTao Daily here and here. 在聯邦參議院最近的一次聽證會上，來自阿肯色州的參議員科頓（Tom Cotton）顯然很難理解，一個新加坡公民可以長得像中國人，說話像中國人，但卻不是中國共產黨黨員。在科頓對TikTok執行長周受資（Chew Shou Zi）的質詢中，他甚至連周受資的妻兒是美國公民都懷疑。 對於科頓和其參議員同僚來說，這一切都是很嚴肅的事，因為他們是以保護美國國家安全、抵禦迫在眉睫的中國威脅的名義進行調查的。顯然，科頓在哈佛接受的教育並沒有告訴他，新加坡距離北京數千公里，是一個獨立於中國的主權國家，抑或他只是在嘩眾取寵，迎合選民的低級趣味。 大約在同一時間，《南華早報》報道說，中國科學家研製出了一種「改變遊戲規則的電子戰軍事監控設備」。該報稱，實際上，他們的突破將使中國人民解放軍能夠實時發現並精確定位軍事目標，令其無處藏身。 這是中國在軍事武器領域取得的一系列技術進步中的最新進展，表明中國在武器研發方面已經趕超美國。其他技術進步包括高超音速導彈、隱形戰鬥機和無人機、航母上的先進發射系統，以及建造比美國多得多的海軍艦艇的能力。 當美國忙於從每個床底下搜捕「全中國」的間諜時，中國一直在投資硬件和軟件開發，以消除美國的軍事優勢。 每一次，當中國研發出可以對抗美國先進武器的武器時，只會助長美國對中國威脅的偏執，使五角大樓的侏儒們爭先恐後地申請更多預算撥款來研發下一代殺人機器。這樣，你壓我一頭，我壓你一頭，惡性循環下去。 華盛頓的戰略規劃者們也非常擅長根據「假如我是中國人」的預測來構造可能的情景。五角大樓的一些將軍推測，解放軍將在2027年做好入侵台灣的準備。突然之間，大陸的入侵意圖變成了事實，警鐘長鳴，備戰開始。 將中國描繪成威脅於業務有利 當然，將中國描繪成一個來勢洶洶的威脅有利於美國的保護業務。任何認為中國是威脅的國家都會成為美國安全保護的客戶。美國在全球擁有800多個軍事基地，擁有這些基地需要理由。 另一方面，世界正在清醒地認識到，中國不會對任何人構成威脅。中國促成了沙特和伊朗間的和平協議，並與150個國家建立了「一帶一路」倡議。北京在中國境外沒有任何軍事存在，除了在吉布提（Djibouti）有一個補給基地，而且它堅持不干涉他國內政。 據傳，就連美國也要求中國代表美國與伊朗和也門胡塞武裝交涉。胡塞武裝一直在紅海向美國和以色列的航運發射導彈，迫使船隻繞道非洲之角，而不是通過蘇伊士運河，造成了嚴重的經濟混亂。 儘管美國在世界各地都有基地，但強大的美國軍隊對也門的胡塞叛軍幾乎束手無策，對伊朗也毫無影響力。胡塞武裝同情加沙的巴勒斯坦人，與美國人對著幹，贏得了全世界的聲望和認可。中國無法向美國提供任何補救措施，只能要求拜登總統說服以色列立即停火。 當小島國瑙魯與台灣斷交承認中華人民共和國時，美國國務卿布林肯飛往南太平洋訪問其他島國，要求他們守住底線，不要轉變外交關係。作為回報，他承諾向這些國家的政府提供數十億美元的幫助。 「白人不可信」 布林肯來了又走了，華盛頓並沒有隨之提供資金。帕勞和馬紹爾群島的首腦不耐煩了，寫信給華盛頓，先是私下溝通，然後是公開信，告訴全世界，美國人的名譽並不值錢。 此時此刻，世界看到的是昔日的霸主在一幫烏合之眾面前束手無策，在阻止以色列在加沙的種族滅絕行動方面毫無希望，向小島國開出無法兌現的空頭支票。 時任總統特朗普試圖「讓美國再次偉大」，開始美國與中國的經濟競爭，拜登上台後繼續加劇，現在又如何呢？ 首先，特朗普聲稱對從中國進口的商品徵收關稅是美國財政部可「免費」獲得的資金，這對於任何學過「經濟學101」基礎課的人來說，都是可笑的。然而拜登卻繼續執行關稅政策，因為他害怕得罪那些愚蠢到相信特朗普「免費」政策的美國選民。（進口關稅實際上損害了納稅人的錢袋子解釋起來要困難得多）。 拜登還加倍努力，提供激勵措施讓製造業回歸美國，或至少將製造業從中國「近岸化」到更友好的國家。值得稱讚的是，美國的製造業得到了適度的回流，這些製造業可以高度自動化，而且不依賴於在美國已經找不到的熟練生產工人。 確實，相當一部分低價值商品的製造業確實離開了中國，其中一個熱門目的地就是越南。越南人的職業道德與中國不相上下，因此取得了一定程度的成功。但這些業務依賴於在中國建立起來的供應鏈，事實上，許多業務實際上由遷往越南的中國公司所擁有。 最近的貿易數據顯示，雖然中國對美國的直接出口有所下降，但對越南和墨西哥的出口卻大幅增長，與後者對美國出口的增長同步。換句話說，供應鏈延長，效率降低，是對美國貿易政策的直接反應。 中國的電動汽車生產正在風靡全球，超越日本、德國和韓國，成為世界第一大汽車出口國。為了阻止中國電動汽車進入美國市場，拜登對其加徵了25%的進口關稅。中國的回答是在墨西哥建立組裝廠。 由於種種原因，拜登的半導體製造業回歸戰略也令人大跌眼鏡。 台積電（TSMC）在屈服於美國的壓力，將一條先進的生產線遷往亞利桑那州鳳凰城時發現，建造和運營這家技術難度極高的工廠所需的熟練工人十分缺乏。首條生產線的投產日期至少推遲了一年。 台積電曾獲承諾搬遷工廠將獲得數十億元的補貼，但它仍在等待這筆錢。與此同時，美國土生土長的英特爾公司將在美國建造一座不那麼先進的新晶圓廠，並預計可及時獲得數十億元的補貼。如果台積電被拋棄，沒有人會感到意外。 中國的「崩潰」未成現實 主流媒體的專家們目睹中國大型房地產控股公司近期破產時，高興地大笑起來。他們推斷並預測中國經濟將再次出現負增長，甚至全面崩潰。 然而，位於瑞士的經濟政策研究中心今年發表的一篇論文宣稱：「中國現在是世界上唯一的製造業超級大國。其工業產值超過其後9個製造業大國的總和」，是美國的三倍，日本的六倍。 作為世界製造業超級大國，中國在製造戰爭武器和工業產品方面能夠輕鬆超越美國也就不足為奇了。 如果西方觀察家不是忙於貶低中國的努力，將中國的進步歸咎於知識產權盜竊和山寨，他們也許會意識到，中國在電動汽車、造船、基礎設施建設和高鐵發展方面佔據主導地位是不可避免的，因為中國順應了巨大且不斷增長的國內市場的需求。 另一個與中國競爭的對策是拜登政府對中國的高科技實施制裁和出口限制，特別是限制半導體技術和人工智能（AI）晶片。 根據美國之前與俄羅斯打交道的經驗，經濟制裁和禁運適得其反，極大地促進了俄羅斯對非與美國結盟世界的出口，使盧布升值至新高。 事實上，去年9月，華為推出了一款功能可與蘋果最新款iPhone媲美的智能手機，該手機採用了華為自研晶片設計，由中國境內的中芯國際（SMIC）工廠製造，令美國大吃一驚。三年來，華為一直被禁止使用台積電的晶圓廠服務，但它找到了繞過限制的辦法。 有決心就有出路 想方設法繞過美國的制裁和禁運是不可避免的，也是遲早的事。 中國的人口是美國的四倍，每年產生的科學、技術、工程和數學（STEM）畢業生是美國的六倍，中產階級消費市場比美國總人口還要大。 中國的工業產能是美國的三倍，勞動力的技術水平也與時俱進，為甚麼美國要對在經濟上被中國趕超憤憤不平呢？ 與此同時，除了爭論在南部邊境修牆阻擋非法移民之外，我還沒有看到美國在重建基礎設施方面取得多少成就。讓人哭笑不得的是，今年年初看到的唯一一則報道是修復了橫跨紐約東河的漢密爾頓大橋。 這實際上是在2013年，由位於附近新澤西州的一家中國建築公司在美中友好時期完成的。 美國發往烏克蘭的彈藥已經告罄，而紅海邊的胡塞武裝也煩得要命，就像打不死的小強。華盛頓要說服台北政府挑釁台灣海峽對岸的巨龍，運氣不會太好，而且在全世界的威望也在日漸低落。 《亞洲時報》的戈德曼（David Goldman）寫道：「從blob（外交精英小集團）手中拯救美國的未來」。在我看來，「blob」是一個更形象的說法，指的是在華盛頓發瘋的新保守派以保護國家安全為名在世界各地製造緊張局勢。他們製造的緊張局勢越多，軍工企業拿到的下一代武器訂單就越多。 美國人通過增加國債和印製更多鈔票來為武器買單。總有一天世界上所有人都會認識到美元正在穩步貶值，並決定不再持有。面對可疑的信仰和可信的衰落，美國將陷入掙扎。 戈德曼的結論是：「我們無法阻止中國的崛起，但我們可以崛起得更快」。哇，我們可以嗎？ 撥款5億元抨擊中國 這個月我看到國會撥款5億元用於「對中國的負面新聞報道」。我想，阻止崛起的一個辦法就是把每一次崛起都變成中國崩潰的故事。我們是世界上最強大的宣傳機器，我們可以（而且已經）把每一個故事都描繪成與事實恰恰相反的樣子。 讓7億多人擺脫貧困可以被報道為人權暴行。對維吾爾族青年進行再教育，引導他們遠離恐怖主義，可以被視為奴役。普洛西認為，香港抗議者暴力破壞財產、殺害無辜旁觀者的行為可以被描述為「美麗的」爭取民主和自由的鬥爭。 自遮雙目入群峰，就是美國的取道方式。

America on autopilot to self-inflicted destruction

Firat posted in Asia Times. At a recent hearing in the US Senate, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas apparently had trouble understanding that a citizen of Singapore can look like a Chinese, talk like a Chinese and yet not be a member of the Communist Party of China. In Cotton’s questioning of Chew Shou Zi, the chief executive of TikTok, even the fact that Chew’s wife and children are American citizens seemed suspicious to him. This was all serious stuff for Cotton and his fellow senators as they probed in the name of safeguarding America’s national security against the looming threat of China. Apparently, Cotton’s Harvard education did not tell him that Singapore is thousands of kilometers from Beijing and is a sovereign nation independent of China. Or maybe he was just grandstanding to cater to the lowbrow mindset of his constituents. At around the same time, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese scientists had developed a “game-changing military surveillance device for electronic warfare.” In effect, the paper said, their breakthrough will enable the People’s Liberation Army to find and pinpoint the quadrants of a military target in real time with no place to hide. This is the latest of a series of technological advances China has made in military arms that indicate it has either caught up with or surpassed the US in weapons development. Others include hypersonic missiles, stealth fighters and drones, advanced launch system on aircraft carriers, and the capacity to build many more naval vessels than the US. While the US has been busy hunting for spies from the “whole of China” under every bed, China has been investing in hardware and software developments to neutralize American military superiority. Each time, as China develops a counter to America’s advanced weaponry, this simply feeds US paranoia about China’s threat and causes the Pentagon gnomes to go scurrying for more budget allocations to develop the next-generation killing machine. Thus, you top me and then I will top you for topping me, and the vicious circle goes on. The strategists and planners in Washington are also very good at creating likely scenarios based on the projection of what the Chinese would do “if I were them.” Some Pentagon generals speculate that the PLA will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Suddenly, the mainland’s intent to invade becomes fact, and alarm bells ring and war preparations are begun. Portraying China as a menace is good for business Of course, positioning China as a menacing threat is good for America’s protection business. Any country that believes in China as a threat becomes a client of the US security protection. The US has more than 800 military bases around the world and needs reasons for having them. On the other hand, the world is awakening to the realization that China is not posing a threat to anyone. It brokered a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and has have established its Belt and Road Initiative with 150 countries. Beijing does not have any military presence outside of China to speak of, unless you count a supply base in Djibouti, and it adheres to non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs. Even the US is rumored to have asked China to intercede on America’s behalf with Iran and the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis have been firing missiles at American and Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, forcing the rerouting of ships around the Horn of Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal, causing significant economic disruption. Despite its bases around the world, the mighty American military is virtually helpless against the Houthi rebels of Yemen and has no influence on Iran. The Houthis, by taking on the Americans in sympathy with the Gaza Palestinians, have gained worldwide prestige and recognition. China was unable to offer the US any remedy other than that President Joe Biden must persuade Israel to enact an immediate ceasefire. When the tiny island nation of Nauru switched diplomatic relations from Republic of China (aka Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to visit other island states in the South Pacific asking them to hold the line and not switch their diplomatic ties. In return, he promised billions of dollars to help out the governments. ‘White man can’t be trusted’ Blinken came and left, and no money followed from Washington. The heads of Palau and the Marshall Islands got impatient and wrote to Washington, first in the form of a private communication and then by public letter telling the world that the American word of honor isn’t worth very much. At this point, the world sees the heretofore hegemon helpless before a ragtag band of rebels, hopeless in being able to stop Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza, and offering checks to tiny island nations that can’t be cashed. What about the US economic competition with China begun by then-president Donald Trump as he tried to “make America great again,” which was continued and even accentuated by his successor, President Joe Biden? First of all, Trump’s assertion that tariffs imposed on imports from China were “free” money for the US Treasury is, to anyone that took Economics 101, as ludicrous as it sounds. Yet Biden continued the tariff policy because he was afraid of offending those American voters dumb enough to believe in Trump’s free money. (Explaining that import tariffs actually hurt the taxpayer’s pocketbook is much more challenging.) Biden also doubled down by providing incentives to bring back manufacturing to the US, or at least “nearshoring” it out of China to friendlier countries. To his credit, the US enjoyed a modest return of manufacturing that can be highly automated and does not depend on skilled production workers who are no longer found in America. Indeed, a good portion of manufacturing of low-value goods did leave China, a popular destination being Vietnam. The work ethic of the Vietnamese is comparable to that in China and thus enjoyed some degree of success. But these operations depend on the supply chains well established in China, and many, in fact, are actually owned by Chinese companies that relocated to Vietnam. Recent trade data show that while China’s direct export to the US has declined, its export to Vietnam and Mexico has significantly increased, in step with the latter increase in exports to the US. In other words, the supply chain lengthened, and became less efficient in direct response to American trade policy. China’s production of electric vehicles is taking over the world by storm, becoming the No 1 exporter of cars, having surpassed Japan, Germany and South Korea. To keep Chinese EVs from the American market, Biden has added a 25% import tariff on them. China’s answer is to build an assembly plant in Mexico. Biden’s strategy to bring back semiconductor manufacturing has also been significantly underwhelming, for a number of reasons. As Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) discovered, when it acceded to US pressure and moved an advanced production line to Phoenix, Arizona, the skilled workers needed to build and run the technologically challenging plant were lacking. The startup date for the inaugural operation has been pushed back by at least a year. TSMC was promised billions of dollars in subsidy for the relocated fab and it is still waiting for the money. Meanwhile, American born and bred Intel, with a much less advanced new fab to be built in the US, is slated to get its billions in a timely manner. The likelihood of TSMC being left holding the bag should surprise no one. China’s ‘collapse’ contrary to reality Pundits in the mainstream media chortled in delight as they witnessed the recent bankruptcy of China’s major real-estate holding companies. They extrapolated and predicted negative growth for China’s economy, even a total collapse – again. See, for instance, a particularly incisive dissection of such buffoonery. Yet a paper published this year by the Switzerland-based Center for Economic Policy Research declared that “China is now the world’s sole manufacturing superpower. Its industrial production exceeds that of the nine next largest manufacturers combined,” three times as big as the US and six times as big as Japan. As the world’s manufacturing superpower, it’s no wonder that China can easily surpass the US in the making of weapons of war as well as industrial goods. If Western observers hadn’t been so busy belittling China’s efforts, attributing progress to IP theft and copycat, they might have realized that China’s dominance in EVs, ship building, infrastructure building and high-speed train development were inevitable, as China responded to demands of a huge and growing domestic market. Another response to competing with China is for the Biden White House to impose sanctions and export restrictions on high technology to China, in particular restrictions on access to semiconductor technology and chips for artificial intelligence. Based on America’s prior experience with Russia, wherein economic sanctions and embargoes backfired and gave Russia a great boost in export to the world not aligned with the US and strengthened the value of ruble to new highs, Biden surely should have considered that China is too big for any effective stranglehold. Indeed, last September Huawei surprised the US by introducing a smartphone that rivaled the latest Apple iPhone in function using its own chip design and made by a Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) fab inside China. Huawei was denied access to the fab services of TSMC for three years but found a way around the restrictions. Where there’s a will, there’s a way around Finding ways around American sanctions and embargoes is inevitable and a matter of time. China has a population four times that of the US, generates six times as many science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) graduates every year, and has a middle-class consumer market larger than the total population of the US. With industrial capability three times that of the US and a workforce that is technologically up to date, why should America resent being surpassed economically? In the meantime, other than arguing about building the wall on the southern border to keep out the illegal immigrants, I haven’t seen much accomplished in rebuilding the infrastructure in America. Laughing out loud, the only story I saw reported early this year was the restoration of the Hamilton Bridge across the East River in New York City. This was actually completed in 2013 and done by a Chinese construction company based in nearby New Jersey during friendlier times. The US is running out of munitions to send to Ukraine, and the Houthis by the Red Sea are annoying as hell, like a gnat that couldn’t be swatted. Washington is not going to have much luck persuading the Taipei government to provoke the dragon across the Taiwan Strait, and is facing diminishing prestige around the world by the day. Asia Times’ David Goldman writes about “Saving America’s future from the blob.” I see the “blob” as a more graphic term for the neocons running amok in Washington raising tensions everywhere in the world in the name of protecting national security. The more tension they caused, the more orders for next generation weapons are placed with the military industrial complex. Americans pay for the weapons by raising the national debt and printing more money. The day will come when everybody in the world recognizes the steadily declining value of the dollar and decides not to hold on to the greenback any more. Backed by the dubious full faith and credit of a fading America, the US will be in a world of hurt. Goldman concludes that “we cannot stop the rise of China, but we can rise faster.” Wow, we can? $500 million for China-bashing What I have seen this month is a congressional allocation of $500 million for “negative news coverage of China.” I guess one way to stop the rise is to turn every rise into a story of China’s collapse. We are the most powerful propaganda machine in the world and we can (and have) portray every story just opposite to what is actually true. Taking more than 700 million people out of poverty can be reported as human-rights atrocity. Re-education of Uighur young people to steer them away for terrorism can be seen as slave labor. The violent destruction of property and killing of innocent bystanders by Hong Kong protesters can be described, according to Nancy Pelosi, as a “beautiful” fight for democracy and freedom. Pulling the wool over its own eyes is how America will fly into a mountain waiting in its flightpath.