Monday, July 10, 1995

Synergy across the Taiwan Straits

Come early August, a Taiwan delegation of forty some individuals, consisting of officials under the guise as "economists" and real industrialists from the private sector, will convene in Beijing for about a week to meet with counterparts from their host! (Yes, Beijing is still the capital of The People's Republic of China.)

What will they talk about? According to the advance agenda and if all goes well, the two sides will discuss economic development and cooperation. The Taiwan delegation are planning to discuss their strengths and needs in electronics, aeronautics, iron and steel, and the automotive industry. They will listen to the reciprocating presentations from the Beijing side and then they will tour the famed "electronics row" near Beijing University and the special economic development zone in nearby Tianjin. On the last day of their visit, combined study groups representing each industry will present their collective conclusions and future action items.

This is, of course, not a sudden whim but a carefully planned event borne out of mutual necessity and complementary strengths. The mainland economy has been booming along at over 10% per year. Even so, the growth has been lopsided, heavy in the southern regions near Hong Kong and Taiwan and lighter to hardly any elsewhere. A vast number are still under-employed in state-run enterprises that do not know what to do with them. Beijing needs Taiwan's expertise in building large scale manufacturing operations to make more efficient use of the labor pool. Along with it, Beijing needs Taiwan's capital, international market access and presence, business acumen and management expertise.

Taiwan's economy has been cooling down and it's electronics business based on the personal computer taking its lumps. Taiwan's industries are naturally attracted by the nearby source of low cost labor, a labor force with common cultural background with which to bring down their cost base. Taiwan is also drooling over the prospect of many natural resources on the mainland such as coal, oil and minerals that are awaiting for development. Most surprising perhaps to the western observer is that Taiwan also covets the mainland's store of technology!

That a less developed economy such as China should possess technology of value to Taiwan is on the surface surprising. The reason that this is so is because Taiwan has historically under-invested in research and development even as the economy was expanding rapidly. Mainland China despite a per capita GNP about one - tenth that of Taiwan has always employed a lot scientists and technologists at the universities, research institutes and industrial organizations. By and large, these developments sit in the laboratories unloved because China lacks the resource and know-how to turn them into commercial successes.

Then came Taiwan. In recent 2-3 years, the Taiwan government came to realize that as wages rise, the electronics industry, notably the personal computers, will no longer be able to compete as the low cost producer. They sought the advice of A. D. Little, the Cambridge, Mass., think tank. ADL's advice was to seek strategic alliances as the way of injecting Taiwan with new technology. Alas, it has been easier said than done. Taiwan looks to U.S., Japan and Western Europe for advanced technology. Other than cash, as is the case on the deal they are negotiating with McDonnell Douglas, it's not obvious to the countries with advanced technology as to what else Taiwan brings to the party. The mainland on the other hand has no trouble appreciating the merits of cooperating with Taiwan.

Whether the August meeting is the beginning of a symbiotic mutual dependence remains to be seen. As to which of the mainland technological developments are real commercial plums is also not clear to the outside observers. Only time will tell.

A final point, it seems to me, is that despite their still enormous political differences, China and Taiwan are finding ways to work toward common economic gain. The U.S. with much less political capital at stake is missing out. Except for a few notable exceptions such as Du Pont, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Motorola and 3M, most American companies are not investigating the growing economy in China. Nor are there many companies taking advantage of Taiwan as the gateway to the growing markets of southeast Asia.

About 12 years ago, a Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong to Tokyo was forced to make an emergency landing in Taipei. All the passengers had to disembark and wait for another plane, including a group of mainland officials holding PRC passports. In those days, each side was still very much the enemy of the other. What to do? A most awkward incident was avoided when the Taiwan immigration official waived the procedure of examining the transient's passport. Even then, the Chinese in Taiwan showed the willingness to be flexible. We, in America, ought not let any political high horse get in the way of doing business in Asia. In Taiwan and especially in mainland China, anything American still carries a special cache, a special feeling dating back to World War II. Too bad more American businesses are not taking advantage of this vast reservoir of built-in good will.
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Note added on January 20, 2008. Tragically, the synergy discussed abovebecame what could have been when the political condition in Taiwan took a turn away from reapproachment and the potential of cross strait cooperation was only partially realized.

Thursday, June 1, 1995

When is a Radar Trap a Contradiction?

A visitor from China was riding along in the heartland of America when he noticed and asked his driver and host about the gadgets on the dash of the car.

The top one was the radar detector to warn the driver of speed traps ahead, the American executive explained. The second one was a laser detector because some of the speed traps, in order to outwit the radar detectors, were using lasers instead. "This is high technology in action, you see," the American said partly in jest.

The Chinese thought for a while and then said, "Did you know that the Chinese term for contradiction is literally made up of two characters: "maodun" which stands for spear and shield?

"During the warring states period in ancient China, so the story goes, there were two shops next to each other in the capital. The sign on one store proclaimed that it made the world's sharpest spears guaranteed to penetrate any shield. The other store proclaimed that it made the world's strongest shields guaranteed to block any spear."

Nancy and McDonald, peaceful co-existence

On one of the busiest sections of Shanghai's Huaihai Road, there is a fast food restaurant doing brisk business called Nancy's Fast Food. The logo is the slightly exaggerated letter "N" in one and one half golden arches on an orange red background that McDonald's made famous. A sub-title underneath the restaurant sign reads: Chinese Foreign Joint Venture. If Nancy's had opened in the U.S., the owner would have heard from McDonald's lawyers in no time flat. But this is China and Nancy's owner is said to have powerful relatives. Besides, Nancy's had been in business for almost two years before McDonald's entered Shanghai. McDonald's approach was to open its first restaurant just a few store fronts from Nancy's. In effect, Nancy has introduced the concept of fast food to Shanghai consumers and McDonald's is taking advantage of the built-in stream of customers. Nancy's offers all sorts of fast food but no hamburgers; the last time I looked, both places were busy with lots of customers.

Lesson: In Asia, symbiosis works better than confrontation.

Wednesday, April 26, 1995

China's first McDonald's

Do you remember the international brouhaha that was raised late last year because McDonald's 20 year lease on the corner of Changan Avenue and Wanfujing Street, arguably the most coveted address in Beijing, was suddenly in jeopardy? Most China wise folks would know that Changan is the main east-west thoroughfare that runs by the famed Tiananmen Square. The intersecting Wanfujing extends northward and has historically been known as the premier street of commerce in Beijing.

Many a homesick visitors in Beijing for an extended stay have probably eaten at the 700 seat restaurant, said to be the world's largest McDonald. After a gala opening in 1991, it was to vacate prematurely in favor of a big time development financed by Hongkong money. Going by recently, I see that the restaurant was still standing, though rather forlornly because everything around it has turned to rubble.

As the locals tell it, Li Kaishing, one of Hongkong's richest billionaires, made the deal with the Beijing municipal government, which normally would have been sufficient. The envisioned project was going to be so huge, that it was going to dwarf the 17-story Beijing Hotel across the street, dominate the nearby Tiananmen Square and cast a shadow over the grandeur of Forbidden City, the finest imperial palace in China,--movie goers will remember it as the back drop for Bertolucci's Last Emperor.

In January, cooler heads from the central government reconsidered the matter and ordered the project put on hold, but not before all the buildings on that long block from the corner of Wangfujing eastward along Changan had been razed. Maybe the fuss over McDonald contributed to stopping this project, but it was too late to save the street. From the most desirable location, the restaurant is now next to one of the biggest eye sores in Beijing. With reduced foot traffic, McDonald did not exactly win.

As of April, the government has asked Li Kaishing to proceed at a reduce height comparable to the neighboring Beijing Hotel. Whether the Hongkong investors would still find the project economically attractive is not known at the time of this report.

In any case, students of Chinese tradition would not find the refusal to allow the development to proceed as surprising as the initial approval. For dynasties, no building around the palace is permitted to look down into the palace grounds. After all the site of the imperial grounds was carefully chosen to ensure long and stable reign. This and other traditions involving the palace and its powerful fengsui are observed by the current regime with the tall Beijing Hotel being only a slight stretch. Fengsui is the Chinese term for their science of geomancy that basically says location is everything. (Maybe the first Chinese geomancer was a real estate broker.)

If you don't think the current regime is a keen observer of traditional fengsui, next time in Beijing look at the prime real estate on the avenues that radiate directly north and south away from Forbidden City. You will find no tall buildings. Why? Because, as it was explained to me, the central nervous system of the imperial dragon lie underneath the north-south axis, and nothing heavy should be allowed to press on it.

People that do not understand China, which include many in Washington, tend to think of China as a tightly controlled state in which everybody moves in sync. This kind of go/no-go happenings, which occur with regularity, should persuade otherwise.

Other explanation for the go and stop and maybe go again of the Wangfujing project attributes the cause to political in-fighting between the central and the municipal government. Whatever the case, it does reaffirm the maxim about China, namely "nothing stays the same and nothing is as it seems."

Thursday, February 9, 1995

Getting on the Fast Boat to China

Depending on who you believe, China now has the second largest economy in the world, after the U.S. according to the UN, or the third largest after Japan according to the International Monetary Fund. Either way, it is pretty startling for a country with a per capita gross domestic product of less than $400. (Both the U.S. and Japan's per capita GDP are more than fifty times greater.) That China's economy has been under stated and under rated does not surprise those of us who have been doing business in China for years.

To others who are just getting the message about the exciting opportunities in China and are ready to join the next stampede into China, a word of caution is in order. As many business executives who joined the first wave into China in the late '70's found out: some of that glitter is pyrite. The outcome will depend on the executive's advance preparation, assumptions, motivation, Asia-related experience, and whether the objectives are long term or short. (If you're the investment banker looking for the quick hit, get there early. Don't wait until all are labled persona non grata.)

China's appeal

Specifically, why is China so attractive? China has been enjoying close to double digit economic growth for nearly 15 years. To fuel this growth, China has been a voracious buyer of capital equipment and technology. They buy from the U.S. when politics and export control don't get in the way, from others when they do. This is why Silicon Valley IC equipment companies, among others, are rushing into China.

After such sustained economic growth, the domestic consumer market is becoming one worth drooling over. Goods bearing the Pierre Cardin and Yve St. Laurent labels are prominently displayed in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing and sold at world level prices. The shift from a centrally planned economy to a market economy means people are no longer evenly poor. While it's still a tiny percentage of the population that are making a lot of money, a very small percentage multiplied by a very large population base nonetheless amounts to a significant number of customers for expensive goods. Coca Cola has been in China for a long time and knows first hand about the growth in consumption. More recent entrants doing well there include MacDonalds and Campbell Soup.

Furthermore, China still possesses a large pool of motivated and reasonably well trained workers who can make goods at a competitive cost. The first ones to go to China because of this comparative advantage were the Hong Kong toy makers and the Taiwanese personal computer manufacturers. Motorola is one the first American high tech companies to establish manufacturing bases in China, not just to take advantage of the low cost labor but also to participate more effectively in the local market.

Pitfalls of Doing Business in China

So where are the potholes on this modern silk road to Cathay? First, virtually nothing stays the same about China. The economy, for example, according to most pundits and crystal ball gazers is likely to come to a screeching halt sometime this year or early next. (If Americans can't fine tune a market-based economy, what can be expected of the Chinese who are new at this game?) In the past, the Chinese economy lurched forward for 2-3 years and then hit a wall. Like a stunned drunk, China will pause and collect itself then lurch forward again.... In the meantime, if you have a contract that depended on the Chinese buyer getting easy credit from the Peoples Bank, you had better check into the situation soon.

Many people will tell you that whether your deal is in jeopardy depends on how well your Chinese counterpart is connected. Alas, that's true. However even 24 carat connections today could turn into brass tomorrow. Companies contemplating wholly owned operations in China need to be even more mindful of this issue--namely, how to track which way the political wind is blowing.

Having the right local partner to take care of the formidable amount of red tape can ease the pain of entry, and the local partner can guard your ongoing interest. Furthermore, China still has that 3rd world sensitivity about being exploited. Even though they now permit 100% owned foreign operations in China, the thought of the foreign entity taking all the profits still smacks of exploitation to them, and the approval process is bound to be long and arduous. If you leave a, say 20%, minority stake on the table for the local partner, you will find life easier now and in the future. 3M is a case in point. They had the very first wholly foreign owned venture in China, grudgingly approved in late 1984. Recently 3M took on a local partner to accelerate their business expansion of that venture in China.

Smaller American companies need not be fazed by the prospects of doing business in China if they have long term objectives and can gird themselves for the Chinese decision-making process that is almost never quick. Establishing a carefully thought out base now should pay dividends over the long haul as China's economy continues to grow.

Tuesday, January 17, 1995

Apple China Forum

Godd afternoon, ladies and gentleman. It is a pleasure to participate at this Apple China Forum and a honor indeed to be part of this distinguished body. Parenthetically, I should admit that I am glad that the 49'ers played yesterday.

As recently as 15 months ago, when I chaired a conference in Silicon Valley sponsored by the Asian American Manufacturers Association on fastest growing economies of Asia, it was still necessary to declare that China has become the world's hottest and fastest growing market for just about anything. Now that has become common knowledge. Those of us that have been active in China has seen the list of items that every household hungers for changed from the bicycle and sewing machine to color TV and refrigerator; now its VCR, camcorder, CD player and home karaoke sets. The family car and the personal computer are likely to be next on the desired list.

As you can see from this chart, courtesy of Dataquest, sale of personal computer, since 1992, is already beginning to take off in China. I believe, however, that so far virtually all of the sales are outside of the home market. But there is a lot of market left. One way of looking at China's market potential of China is to compare to that of the U.S. Even if we consider only the urban population which is roughly 25% of the total population, the per capita concentration of PCs in China is about 1/40th of the U.S.

So if you decide to enter this market, what do you need to know about China? Where are the potholes on this silk road to Cathay? In addition to the usual parameters in entering any new market, there are some that are peculiar to China. My fellow panelists will no doubt add others.

A big reason for the complexities of the China market is because China is still in transition from a state-controlled allocation system to a distribution that is unevenly determined by market forces. Some organizations can import directly; others still have go through state authorized trading corporations. Some dealers have powerful backers; others operate in briefcases that were here yesterday but gone today. Some specialize in soft currency transactions to organizations loaded with Rmbs but no dollars.

Sunday, January 1, 1995

First American to become a Chinese General

Who is the first naturalized Chinese American to become a general of the U.S. Armed Services? I don't know the answer to that question, but I do know who was the first American to become a naturalized Chinese citizen and became a general of the Chinese army, a personal appointment bestowed by the emperor.

His name was Frederick Townsend Ward, a native of Salem, Massachusetts, and this happened over 130 years ago. Ward was a soldier of fortune who ended up in Shanghai at the time of Taiping rebellion (and about the same time as the American Civil War). He organized and trained an army to defend the city from the encroaching rebels and his deeds were recognized by the imperial court in Beijing. He was appointed a mandarin official of the third rank and a general of his army, named Ever Victorious Army or Chang Sheng Jun (in pingyin). He was mortally wounded in battle and died within a year or two of his appointment, and a Briton by the name of Charles Gordon assumed command and the troops played a prominent role in rolling back the Taiping rebellion. Gordon was so successful that he picked up "Chinese" as his moniker. Charles "Chinese" Gordon's name was to become world famous some twenty years after his campaign in China when he died defending Khartoum in Sudan.

Anyone interested in learning more about this fascinating chapter of history along with a colorful description of colonial Shanghai will want to read The Devil Soldier by Caleb Carr, Random House, 1992.

Ward was the first to demonstrate that Chinese soldiers when properly organized and trained were equally adept at firing western guns and can become as effective a fighting force as, say, westerners. After his death, his followers buried him in Songjiang, a village south of Shanghai where he had his headquarters. The people at the time honored him by erecting a small temple by his tomb. Alas, he did not realize that by fighting on the side of the Manchu court, he was to become politically incorrect. After the 1949 Liberation, his tomb and temple was leveled and paved over into a park and no trace can be found today. (Recently, when I made a special trip out to Songjiang, I couldn't find anybody there that knew of Ward.)