Later this week, President
Barack Obama will meet China’s President Xi Jinping in an informal setting in
Southern California, an added stop for President Xi en route back to China after
state visits in Latin America.
This more or less impromptu
meeting has aroused a lot of interest on both sides of the Pacific. Some pundits
do not expect the meeting to move the needle on bilateral relations. Others
hope for an outcome that’s goes beyond status quo.
Since the White House initiated
the invitation, Obama has an opportunity to think out of the box and present an
overture that could permanently change the nature of the bilateral relations.
A good place to start would
be for Obama to offer a startling new approach to the North Korea issue.
Heretofore, North Korea has
been a pipsqueak state that seemed to get away with jerking the chains of both
the US and China with impunity.
Despite or because of vocal
protests from the US, North Korea has apparently gone ahead with an underground
nuclear detonation—“apparently” because no one seems to know for sure.
Despite consternation from
Japan and South Korea along with pressure from the US, North Korea has
test-fired ballistic missiles in the direction of neighboring South Korea and
Japan. Some supposed intercontinental range missile turned out much shorter
range than expected and some were outright duds.
Each time after the
government has misbehaved on the international stage, it would offer to begin
the six party talks, provided of course the US will agree to preconditions that
the North Koreans know the US will not accept.
The only recourse Washington
seems to have is to lean on Beijing to get the North Korea to behave, since the
regime is completely dependent on the food and energy aid from China, without
which the regime would certainly collapse.
But China is equally
frustrated, if not more so, by the North Koreans. Each time Beijing sends a
special envoy to Pyongyang to ask the government not to build a bomb or not to
fire a missile, the Pyongyang would assure the envoy and then goes ahead and reneges
a few days after the envoy leaves. Sometime, the misbehavior takes place a
couple of days ahead of the arrival of the visiting delegation just to rub it
in.
Most recently, after the most
recent missile test and after finally releasing Chinese fishermen held by the
North Koreans—as this has happened more than once—Pyongyang promptly sent their
highest ranking military official to Beijing to again express proper contrition
and again promise to participate in the much desired six party talks.
North Korea’s seemingly
erratic behavior has been deliberate and carefully calibrated. It continues to
push and test the boundary of what China will tolerate, because Pyongyang knows
that China will not allow the regime to implode altogether.
China has two major reasons
not wanting to see the Pyongyang regime collapse. First it would have to deal
with a massive refugee problem as Koreans flee north into China. Second,
presumably the Seoul government will take over and unify the entire peninsula.
This would mean potential American military presence all the way to the border
of China.
Up to now, Washington has
been badgering Beijing to fix the problem and make Pyongyang behave but has
offered nothing that would help Beijing get out of the conundrum.
At the coming meeting with Xi
in southern California, Obama has the chance to put a startling offer on the
table. Namely, if South Korea were to unify north and south, the US immediately
withdraw all its troops from the Korean peninsula!
Of course, American
presidents have been known to make deals that they could not later deliver.
Therefore Xi’s response is likely to be cautious and measured, but what an ice
breaking beginning this would be.
To offer to sit on the same
side of the negotiating table opposite North Korea is to declare Obama’s
recognition that the US and China have too much at stake in common to continue in
adversarial postures.
Obama could point out to Xi
that since China normalized its relations with South Korea (to the
consternation of the North) in 1992, South Korea has become an important
economic partner of China and the bilateral relations have been cordial without
one-sided demands like that from the North.
If the Korean peninsula were
to unify under Seoul, China would have a friendly neighbor and enjoy a stable
relationship. With peace and stability being the common goal of China and the
US, there would be no further reason for an American military presence.
The rationale is compelling
and the proof is in the doing. In order to convince Xi and his Zhongnanhai colleagues
that Obama is sincere, he would have to change his pivot to Asia into an
invitation for joint exercise with the PLA Navy. In that way, the expression of
peaceful intentions is actualized.
Much work has to be done
before this scenario becomes real, but there are two real benefits for Obama.
First, with sequestration, Obama is facing a shrinking defense budget. He still
has a war budget on al Qaeda that needs to be fed. He does not have the funds
to deploy troops in the Pacific where the US faces no threat.
More
importantly, Obama should be thinking about his legacy to history. By brokering
a lasting peace with China and become partners in developing a stable Asia
Pacific, Obama would be remembered for altering the disastrous warpath toward
self destruction embarked by the previous Bush administration and putting
America back on a path to prosperity.
A similar version has been posted on New America Media.
A similar version has been posted on New America Media.
