This is originally posted on China US Focus
The Asia Society and UCSD under the co-chairmanship of Orville
Schell and Susan Shirk, published a task force report on “US
Policy Toward China: Recommendations for a New Administration.” Schell is head of the Center on US-China
Relations at Asia Society and Shirk is head of School of Global Policy and
Strategy at UCSD.
Roughly two years in the making, the point of this report in view
of the timing--published in February 2017--is obviously aimed to serve as a
guide for the Trump administration. Near the beginning of the Executive Summary
is the statement that reads: it is in the
national interest of the United States to strive, if possible, for stable and
mutually beneficial relations with China, and to maintain an active presence in
the Asia-Pacific region.
As they read this report, the China bashing hawks within the
administration won’t necessarily see any need to strive for “mutually
beneficial relations with China.” The moderates in and out of the White House,
on the other hand, may find the generally unfriendly (toward China) tone of the
report surprising.
Aside from the two co-chairs, there are 12 members identified as
“task force” co-authors. Many in this group are known not to hold warm and
fuzzy feelings for China, at least not for the Beijing regime. This is clearly
in contrast with the six task force participants that declined to sign on as
co-authors of the report. The gang of six non-signatories is, in my opinion,
among the faction of more empathetic China observers.
The Task Force Report identified six priority issues that the
Trump Administration must deal with immediately while other issues can wait. Since
I have just published my recommendation
that President Trump has no choice but to collaborate with China, I would like
to review the six issues that’s consistent with my published views.
Work with China to Halt
North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Program.
Former Secretary of
Defense, Dr. William Perry recounted in his memoir
that by the end of the Clinton’s administration, the US under his leadership was
on the verge of reaching an agreement with North Korea. The provisions would have
included Pyongyang agreeing to stop their nuclear program before getting the
bomb.
Then the incoming
Bush administration elected to ignore North Korea for two years and when
contacts resumed, the White House added new demands on Pyongyang. By then
Pyongyang had enough time to complete their development and test their nuclear
weapon and thus became a bona fide member of the nuclear club. Once becoming an
owner of the bomb, negotiations between the US and North Korea became even more
difficult.
Trying to be
helpful, Beijing organized six party talks to see if additional participants,
namely China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, could help break the deadlock. The
six party talks did not, but Washington can now conveniently blame China as the
owner of the nuclear North Korea problem. Actually as I have pointed out in earlier
issue of this publication, so long as China sits across the table from the US
and South Korea, i.e., the interests of the three states are not aligned, China’s
hands are tied. China needs North Korea as a buffer state and could not justify
applying excessive pressure. Putting the survival of the Pyongyang regime in
jeopardy would be against China’s national interest.
Unfortunately,
recently South Korea’s president Park (before she was impeached) had agreed to allow
the US to install Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) inside South
Korea. Since the THAAD missile defense system is effective against long range,
high trajectory missiles, installing the system on South Korea will intercept
missiles heading for Seattle or Los Angeles but won’t do much to protect Seoul
over the border from low trajectory, short range missiles. Park’s muddle headed
decision put her relations with Beijing on deep freeze and of course does not encourage
Beijing to want to work with the US-South Korea coalition.
Reaffirm US Commitments to Asia.
By “commitment to Asia” the
authors mean for the US to continue the role as the world’s hegemon. Someday,
the Trump Administration may conclude that the benefits of “reaffirmation”
(another word for Obama’s American exceptionalism) cannot justify the cost.
Deploy Effective Tools to Address the Lack of
Reciprocity in US Trade and Investment Relations with China.
The
benefits to the US economy from US-China trade and investment are substantial,
but rising protectionism in China and job losses in the United States—some of
which are attributable to trade with China—are undermining public support for
the broader relationship. In the
early days of the bilateral relations, China provided all sorts of incentives
and tax breaks to entice American companies into investing in China. Now that
China has become an economic peer relative to developing countries, they are
taking away the incentives. I suspect some of the feeling of “lack of
reciprocity” is caused by foreign companies having to compete with local
companies, now without the benefit of subsidies.
The feeling of
American companies is likely in part due to missing the incentive packages of
the good ole days but certainly provides grounds for negotiation. The American
Chamber and the National Business Council are quite capable of taking the lead
in discussing fairness of American companies in China. We all know everything
in China is negotiable.
As discussed in my
piece in Asia Times, there is no direct linkage between trade with China and
loss of jobs in the US. The Trump Administration should instead focus on how to
generate a continuing supply of qualified workers that would meet the needs of
plants in the US driven by high technology such as automation and artificial
intelligence. Chinese companies are also looking for skilled workers in the
plants that they wish to locate in the US. That’s where the employment gap is at
and that’s where new jobs will be created.
Intensify Efforts to Encourage a Principled,
Rules-based Approach to the Management and Settlement of Asia-Pacific Maritime
Disputes.
Ironically, the US has
been the greatest cause of tension in the South China and East China Seas. To
calm the waters, the Trump Administration should remove the irritant of
constant surveillance by American naval ships and planes off China’s coast.
Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have all shown that they are capable of
settling their disputes with China amicably without Uncle Sam in the room.
As for the East China
dispute, it’s time the White House recognizes that the US had deliberately sown
the seeds of discord when Washington handed administrative control of Senkaku
(Diaoyu in Chinese) to Tokyo in 1971. Until that point, there was no basis that
those East China islands belong to anyone else other than Beijing or Taipei. If
there was to be a dispute, it should have been between the two parts of China.
Respond to Chinese Civil Society Policies that Harm
US Organizations, Companies, Individuals, and the Broader Relationship.
Bill Gates famously said
when operating in another country, you would expect to abide by the rules and
regulations of that country. It certainly would be the height of arrogance to
expect every country to abide by American rules because America is so
exceptional. That said I do believe unfettered exchange between the people of
the two countries would greatly benefit both countries—so long, of course, as
the exchanges take place without hidden malice and evil intentions. Exchanges
should promote mutual understanding and trust while culturally enriching each
other.
The report further claims
that the current situation allows China to exert an inequitable influence
over US public opinion through an unfettered flow of its propaganda. Ha! The Trump Administration should continue
to allow, nay encourage, the Chinese to exert its influence. Judging from the
flow of negative portrayal of everything related to China that dominates the
American media, China has been doing a terrible job and this matter should be
the least of Trump’s worries.
Sustain and Broaden US-China Collaboration on
Global Climate Change.
Amen to this
recommendation. The world’s perception is that China has already assumed the
leadership on dealing with climate change. For the US to regain their place, certain
members of the Trump Administration need to first take a tutorial on
basic scientific truths. They need to accept that the world is not 6,000 years old
and evolution by Darwin is not some Marxist-Leninist propaganda. Then they
should think about the kind of legacy they want to leave for the future
generations.
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