Sunday, January 23, 2011

Building Mutual Trust between US and China has a long way to go

China’s President Hu Jintao has concluded his state visit and returned to Beijing. By most accounts, his visit was considered a virtually unqualified success—for him and for his host, President Barrack Obama—in a rare win-win in the bilateral relations.

The mainstream media considered the visit a win for Obama and his team for successfully presenting all their concerns to Hu: Secretary of State Clinton on North Korea, Treasury Secretary Geithner on the value of the RMB and Commerce Secretary Locke on protection of intellectual property and level procurement policy inside China. Obama in his joint press conference with Hu mentioned his concern on human rights. All the potentially confrontational issues were delivered diplomatically and in easy to digest doses.

Hu’s visit to Congress the day after the state dinner was the most problematic, but the Congressional leaders despite threatening to confront the leader of China had their meetings with Hu behind closed doors. Afterwards they could claim before the press to have raised their concerns with Hu and expressed satisfaction with the outcome.

Hu also won because he got the high profile treatment and honor accorded to him as the head of a major nation and there were no unpleasant surprises or glitches, except for a minor one when everyone expected simultaneous translation at the joint conference and there were none.

The usual China bashing howlers and screechers were kept on the fringe and did not steal the limelight as they might have wished. The confusion at the White House press conference did present Russ Limbaugh the opportunity to make a complete ass of himself on national radio. He broke out with a 20 second verbal burst that sounded like a savage recently descended from the trees. Limbaugh’s infantile braying alleged to imitate Hu’s remarks offended many and did nothing but tarnished his own image.

So is this a new beginning for the US China bilateral relations? I don’t think so. Some fundamental differences between the two sides have not been resolved and until they are, it will be pretty much business as before. The $45 billion of potential export business that Hu’s advance team brought to the US certainly made the whole visit go down more smoothly but does not represent a permanent cure.

How to deal with Taiwan represents by far the most challenging issue facing both sides. In Obama’s remarks at the press conference, he referred to the Taiwan Relations Act, but in the joint statement about the US commitment to one China policy, there were no reference to TRA. Thus, China could claim to have made progress on this issue while the US can claim that nothing has affected the status quo. In fact, until the US renounces selling arms to Taiwan and stops referring to TRA as though it were an international treaty—in fact it was only a Congressional act—progress in the bilateral relations will be sluggish.

The differences are not just on substantive issues but also on style. Both sides need to devote more effort to understand how as well as what messages are being conveyed by the other side.

For example, the media made a fuss about Hu’s public admission that China has more work to be done to improve human rights. In fact, there was nothing remarkable about Hu’s admission. Most officials inside China from local to national level will freely admit that there are plenty to improve about human rights in China.

The media however did not pick up that Hu also said, “The two sides should respect each other’s value systems, beliefs and development models.” In other words, Hu was saying we know we have a human rights problem—so do you America—and we will deal with our problem our way and not according to your standards.

Hu’s speeches were full of references of China looking to be a cooperative partner with the US. He meant a partner in the full sense of the word and not a subordinated party to the US as the big brother. He was looking for mutual respect as well as mutual benefit. Obama’s team of officials seemed to have accorded that sense of mutual respect on this visit.

How Obama was regarded and treated following his visit to Beijing in November 2009 has also been subject to erroneous interpretations by the mainstream media. Because westerner's perspective was based on win-lose confrontation, they thought Obama was too soft and concessionary throughout his visit and did not win China’s respect. They credit the success of this visit to Obama being harder and more assertive. I disagree.

I believe while in Beijing, Obama positively impressed Beijing that he was an American president that China could work with as a collaborative partner. Shortly after his return, however, he announced arms sales to Taiwan which shocked Beijing and they felt betrayed. Obama was oblivious to how Beijing might react. He felt that the US had always sold arms to Taiwan and nothing has changed. China thought that if Obama had considered China a collaborative partner, then he would have taken China’s feelings into consideration and not made a unilateral announcement on a matter most sensitive to Beijing.

This incident did the most damage to the budding feeling of mutual trust that Obama had built while in Beijing. He could have avoided the set back, I believe, if while in Beijing he had privately confided to Hu that because of politics, he would have to sell some arms to Taiwan upon his return and not catch Beijing by surprise.

Mutual trust, much deeper than it exists today, will be required if the US truly wants China’s help in resolving the North Korea crisis, one of the most nettlesome foreign policy issues facing the US. As recent wiki leaks revealed, some Chinese officials have expressed the view that letting the North Korean regime collapse would save Beijing a lot of grief. China has good relations with South Korea and certainly can work with that government as a neighbor once the Korean peninsula is unified.

However, China could not possibly entertain the thought of having American troops stationed on the border of a unified Korea and China. For China to seriously contemplate letting North Korea implode, the US need to assure China that the US would not take advantage of such a collapse and put troops in the north. We would be looking at a lot of mutual trust that does not exist now.

In the past, the US practice of strategic ambiguity meant making conflicting statements and taking inconsistent positions to keep China guessing. Obviously, this did not build trust and did not alter China’s perception of US as unreliable.

To build mutual trust, both sides need to modify their style of communication as well revising their priorities offering selected concessions. The Americans need to improve their ability to receive and digest nuanced signals from China. The Chinese need to be able to communicate in a more direct and straightforward manner so as not be misunderstood.

The day when both parties can feel that there is mutual rapport is when Secretary Gates could say to President Hu upon landing in Beijing, “Gosh, Mr. President I see that I am way off on China’s stealth plane development schedule. If China has been as transparent as I had suggested in the past, I wouldn’t be so embarrassed,” followed by a jocular chuckle shared between friends.

An edited version appeared in New America Media.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Russ Limbaugh, a New All-Time Bottom for America

On national radio program he hosts, Mr. Limbaugh devoted some 20 seconds on nonsensical gibberish that he represented as China's President Hu's comments at the joint White House press conference. His performance lack originality but remind the listeners of many other bigots trying to make fun of the Chinese language. Limbaugh was obviously attempting to demean the Chinese leader and the Chinese language but I don't think he demean anyone more effectively than himself. Just take a listen and you can decide for yourself if he deserves to be considered a national opinion leader. Do you really see an uneducated buffoon like Mr. Limbaugh to be an icon for America? Whatever your political leaning doesn't really matter; wouldn't you be embarassed to be identified as a fellow American of Limbaugh--nay, as a fellow human being?

Friday, January 14, 2011

Diplomatic breakthroughs not likely on Hu's forthcoming visit

If you are expecting diplomatic breakthroughs in the US China bilateral relations associated with China’s President Hu Jintao’s state visit next week, you are likely in for a disappointment.

Up to now both sides are talking past each other and not to each other. It has been a classic case of cultural mismatch and miscommunications--a case of American frontal declarations versus China’s nuanced ambiguous parries. Each side talks but no one appears to be listening to the other.

Officials of Obama’s Administration have been urging China to be transparent and to be more revealing of their intentions. At the same time they have offered China no incentive to go along.

China has been saying you Americans have stealth planes and aircraft carriers and China does not have them yet. America has a nuclear arsenal many times larger. America’s military technology is years ahead and China’s only strategy is to hide behind a cloud of ambiguity. Keeping America guessing is more important to China than to ensure that America can sleep well at night.

Recently, it has been revealed that China will commission its first carrier this summer and has been testing missiles capable of hitting a moving target thousands of miles away, in other words a “carrier killer.” The US DOD is naturally upset. Up to now, the waters of the Pacific up to China’s shore have been American navy’s own backyard, uncontested by any other power.

In advance of Secretary Robert Gates visit to China, Pentagon presented a laundry list of topics he wished to discuss. When he got to Beijing, China welcomed him with the first test flight of their version of the stealth fighter. When he asked about the timing, President Hu assured him that it was purely coincidental. Sure it was, just like years ago when a Chinese submarine came up to surface within hailing distance of Kitty Hawk, the American carrier patrolling the Pacific.

Before Gates left Washington for Beijing he had said that he hope to convince China to abandon development of advanced weapon systems that would threaten American superiority and furthermore he did not expect the Chinese stealth plane to be operational before 2020. Maybe China begs to differ?

On the one hand, Gates would like to begin high level dialogue between the military counterparts of both sides. On the other, Gates did nothing to assure China that the US holds no hostile intentions towards China—especially not after he then stopped in Japan and urged Japan to place orders for America’s advance fighters in order to keep pace with China’s stealth fighters, ones that he thought wouldn’t be operational for another decade.

In Beijing, Gates wanted to talk about nuclear non-proliferation, missile defense, cyber security, space cooperation, united position on North Korea and Iran, to name a few. His host and counterpart, General Liang’s reply was simply no more arms sales to Taiwan.

What General Liang meant was that China considers Taiwan as part of China and American sales of arms to Taiwan is in violation of China’s sovereignty. If the US is willing to recognize China’s strategic interest and not hide behind Taiwan Relations Act, a unilateral act of America’s making, and then everything else can be on the table.

Shortly after Secretary Gates returned, Treasury Secretary Geithner listed economic and commercial issues that need to be resolved when President Hu come visiting. In exchange for concessions from China, Geithner offered a curious incentive, namely the ability for China to buy more high technology products from the US. Basically Geithner was saying, “Give us what we want and we’ll let you buy more from us.” It’s not clear whether Geithner was talking for the benefit of the Chinese advance team or to cater to expectations of the home audience.

The greatest disconnect seems to be the US insistence of being the only remaining super power with all the privileges pertaining thereof, namely play by American rules. China is saying while we have no desire to be a competing power, we want to be treated with respect and as a peer.

The American doctrine of trust us, we have nothing but good intentions may play well elsewhere but not with China. China does not see American actions consistent with stated intentions, only veiled threats if China does not comply.

I was in Beijing last month as part of a delegation from The Committee of 100, meeting with leaders of Beijing. At the briefing held with American officials at the new US Embassy, I asked if we have an official or unofficial policy of containment of China. The startled official burst out laughing and said, “Absolutely not.”

Later in the afternoon, we went to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and I had the opportunity to pop the same question, namely does China believe the US is trying to contain China. Our host, a Vice Minister, replied, “No, we don’t believe so and even if the US wanted to, we don’t think it could be done.”

At least America’s frontline diplomats working in China see and understand that we are dealing with a China with a new attitude and confidence. It behooves Washington to adjust as well.

China will have its blue water navy and space warfare capability because China can afford to develop them. By having counter punching capability, China may actually be more willing to examine America’s stated altruistic intentions.

If America continues on business as usual basis, it will use China’s every advance in military technology as provocation and justification for increased defense spending. For every dollar China spends on military, America will have to spend 5 to 10 to maintain its overwhelming edge. America will be using the Reagan strategy deployed effectively against the former Soviet Union on itself. America will end up with a national budget for defense and nothing else, which is what led to the implosion of USSR.

Or, Washington can begin to face reality and see our own limitations. America’s already mighty military does not have to get mightier. China is not buying America’s idea of strategic ambiguity consisting of conflicting messages. China’s stated desire is to be a partner with the US and America needs to figure out what concessions—and not just feel good declarations--to give to make friends with China.

Washington needs to convert the mindset of regarding China as a rival into a potential ally. This is not going to happen by the time of Hu’s visit.

Also posted on New America Media.