This was first posted on Asia Times. This version has three links to other sources for readers' convenience.
I believe what happened to
the Republican Party in California bears relevant lessons for the GOP, and if
unheeded, will mean a disastrous outcome in the coming presidential election
and for a long time to come.
If California, heretofore a
trend setting state, indeed portents the future of the national GOP, this is
what they can look forward to. In California, the Republican Party has not won
any of the statewide offices since Arnold Schwarzenegger left the governor’s
office.
There has not been a GOP
elected to the U.S. Senate since Pete Wilson resigned in 1991 to become
governor. Democrat Dianne Feinstein won his seat to join incumbent Democrat,
Barbara Boxer. They have been the only senators from California ever since.
From the GOP side, only
candidates for Senate with the credentials to win the approval of the extreme
right wing of the state can win the GOP primary but they are not electable. Candidates
with moderate credentials that stand a fighting chance in the general election
can never get pass the primary.
In 1994, Pete Wilson faced with
a difficult re-election campaign took on a strong anti-immigrant position and
vigorously supported Prop 187, a proposition denying services to illegal
immigrants.
Wilson found the formula to
win his re-election but inflicted a long-term injury to his party. Today, nearly
three quarters of the Hispanic voters identified the state GOP as
anti-immigrant and voted for the Democrats. A three-to-one edge on 22% of the
electorate in California has been and will continue to be a formidable hurdle facing
any GOP aspirant for statewide office.
Despite his outrageously irresponsible
remarks, Donald Trump continues to lead the polls among the GOP presidential
candidates. If he does become the standard bearer for the 2016 election, it’s
certain that Trump’s anti-immigrant, racist statements that won him the primary
will backfired on him in the general election. Trump’s bigotry will come back
to bite him in the rump and the consequences will be even more painful for the
Republican Party.
According to Los Angeles
Times and other pundits, the
eventual GOP nominee will need to win almost half of the Hispanic votes nationwide to win
the general election. With Trump leading the ticket, it would be the same as the
proverbial fat chance.
According to a recent fact
checker compilation in the New York
Times, Ben Carson and Trump led
the pack of GOP nominees in making false statements; as much as 80% came out of
their mouths as lies. (The Democratic candidates were more modest and lied less
than 30% of the time.)
Of course, the more the
eventual winning candidate had to lie his/her way to a winning nomination, the
more undoing of the lies would be necessary in the general campaign. Some, such
as the racist bigotry comments, will be indelible and not come out in the wash.
The analogy with California
is that it may be necessary to take on extreme right wing positions to lead in
the polls and win the nomination. But the baggage Trump and others pile on in
the race to the nominating convention may be impossible to disown in the
general election.
Now fighting desperately just
to win over one-third of the state legislature and keep the Democrats from a
super majority, The Economist has dismissed the GOP in California as fading into
irrelevance. Based on the way the primary contest has progressed so far, the national
party appears to be on the same trajectory toward irrelevance.
