In Part
I of my review of the Task Force report on “US Policy Toward China,” I noted
that the tone was surprisingly hostile sounding toward China. This was the
report published under the joint leadership of Orville Schell of Asia Society
and Susan Shirk of UCSD.
Upon
further reflection, I decided that the authors probably thought an unfriendly
posture toward China was necessary in order to gain the acceptance of the
incoming administration. During the campaign both candidates had been attacking
China as if that was the way to winning the votes of the electorate.
Thus,
the authors probably felt, or at least subconsciously felt, obliged to be
critical of China so that their report wouldn’t appear discordant to pre-existing
notions and get trashed without being read.
Part I
of my review was to examine the six priority issues on my premise that
the Trump Administration has no choice but to collaborate with China. This Part
II is my review of the ten longer-term issues identified by the Task Force,
again from the perspective that the US needs to work with China and not treat
China as an adversary.
Cyber Issues
The discussion of this section by the
Task Force was relatively free of the kind of rancor that would singled out
China as the only party guilty of cyber infractions and intrusion. Quite sensibly, the Task Force sought
different venues where the US and China could discuss and seek solutions in
issues that represent common interest.
Cyber security and cyber attacks are
beyond the comprehension of the ordinary citizens. To deal with these issues
require technologists with special expertise and knowledge. Instead of
international cooperation, if governments allow cyber security to become an
issue for finger pointing, the winners would be the cyber criminals.
Energy and
Climate Change
By the end of Obama’s term, China had
already emerged as the world’s leading user of wind and solar energy. Xi
Jinping pledged to work alongside the U.S. to reduce emission of green house
gases. Because of China’s rapid economic rise based on “pollute now and
remediate later,” China has been suffering from foul air, toxic water and
unbridled solid waste. Now that Chinese leaders recognize time has come to pay
the price needed for remediation, they are making the commitment without external
pressure from any outside party.
However unlike Obama, President Trump
seems to continue to insist that climate change is some kind of ruse to steal
jobs from America. As the same time, the Republican Congress has rescinded
Obama’s order to limit the burning of coal and forbid use of fresh water to
wash coal. So long as Trump and Congress are unwilling to accept the science
surrounding climate change, China will have to go it alone.
Global
Governance
In this section, the Task Force begins
with the recognition that “today many
global problems are nearly impossible to solve without Chinese involvement and
support.” The report, however, failed to point out and perhaps did not
understand that China goes about international governance very differently from
the US.
As the only hegemon in the world, the
US is accustomed to setting the rules and then expects all others to abide by
them. Not so with China. Since joining the UN, China has become an increasingly
active participant of various international bodies, always within the confines
and rules set forth by the bodies. More recently, China has also taken the
initiative to lead in the formation of international bodies such as the Asia
Infrastructure Investment Bank. In the case of AIIB, China did not set the
rules unilaterally but through the participation of all the founding nations.
The Task Force also mentioned that even
though China is a signatory of UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, China
failed to accept the ruling of UNCLOS on the South China Sea dispute with
Philippines. That was an accusation levied at China so often in the American
media that it became accepted as true. Unfortunately, it was untrue.
China rejected the arbitration by the
Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), which was not affiliated with UNCLOS in
any way whatsoever, because China never agreed to participate in the
arbitration hearings. Just like clapping with one hand, the arbitration can
have no validity if only one party participated at the hearing. Furthermore,
the US never got around to ratifying UNCLOS and thus had no dog in the fight
and must rely on Philippines to act as the Labrador pointer.
Asia-Pacific
Regional Security
The Task Force position was typical of
the mainstream American view, namely the US has an obligation to guarantee the
security of Asia Pacific, specifically pertaining to the waters off the coast
of China. To carry out their role as a guarantor of security, it has been
necessary for the US Navy fleet to patrol the South China Sea and the East
China Sea in the name of freedom of navigation. It has also been necessary to
fly surveillance planes around the coast of China.
Whether the constant intrusion of
American planes and ships is supposed to make Asian countries feel more secure
is a matter of debate. One thing is certain; China does not feel more secure,
just more angry and resentful. China has always derived their sense of security
not by exercising freedom of navigation elsewhere but by owning a credibly
menacing second strike.
North Korean
Nuclear Threat
As I pointed out in Part I of my piece,
while both countries are in agreement that the Korean peninsula must be nuclear
free, the national interest of China and that of the US are not aligned. To
expect them to cooperate effectively is not realistic.
Bill Perry’s memoir clearly described
the origin of the problem as one between North Korea and the US. North Korea
felt threatened by American troops in the south and developing the bomb was
their way of swapping a deterrent for some sense of security. To resolve the
stalemate now, it will continue to depend on Washington to swallow some pride,
take the initiative and offer to resume two party talks, i.e. just
representatives from the US and the North Koreans in the room.
Maritime
Disputes
The US has been dealt a weak hand and
should simply face reality. Washington
has not ratified UNCLOS and does not claim any real estate in the waters of
dispute. The American naval fleet has to sail a long ways to flex their
muscles—a tiring and expensive proposition. America’s role is that of a
busybody kibitzer lacking a legitimate stake in the game.
The Report did admit, “Since China has pledged publicly and
repeatedly to resolve the disputes in the South China Sea—especially those over
the Spratly Islands and associated maritime claims—through peaceful
negotiations,” the claimants should be allowed to do just that. The
cruising American navy is merely muddying the waters and interfering with
negotiations.
Taiwan and Hong
Kong
The Task Force noted that the US has “maintained a principled hands-off position”
on Taiwan and Hong Kong. If true—there
are always rumors of CIA hanky panky to stir up local unrest—minding one’s own
business is a laudable approach.
The Umbrella Movement, contrary to
media reports, represented a minor fraction of the Hong Kong population. There
were indications that the movement had outside support such as the Mormon
Church and who knows what else. The fortunes of the younger generation are tied
to the mainland. Those that recognize this fact will have productive careers.
Those that don’t will likely become homeless, career protesters.
Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has already
found out that she can’t have her cake, i.e., enjoyed close economic ties with
the mainland, and not give what Beijing wants, i.e., recognition that Taiwan is
part of one China. Her economic policies without the mainland are not working,
tourists from across the straits are plummeting, and the economy is in negative
growth.
The people of Taiwan will decide their
own future. Not everyone has the luxury to move to the mainland or to the US. Those
that remain in Taiwan will decide soon enough on whether Tsai is on the right
course. For the US to interfere would be a big mistake and counter to maintaining
peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Human Rights
Despite
significant setbacks such as the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989, the
Chinese people since the end of the Mao era have experienced expanding gains in
a variety of individual freedoms in everyday life. These freedoms include the
ability to choose their own jobs, become prosperous, travel abroad, marry whom they
choose, have more than one child, worship as they wish, and live where they
choose.
In addition to the opening statement by
the Task Force above, China has taken 700 million of its people out of poverty.
With China’s one belt and one road initiative, Beijing is looking to pull
others out of poverty along the Silk Road. China does not go around proselyte
on how each country should govern, but recognizes that economic improvement is
good for the direct beneficiary and in turn good for the neighboring countries.
Economic improvements improve the human condition and automatically allow for
more human rights.
Defense and Military
Relations
The Task Force recommends adopting “an active denial strategy,” which boils
down to deploying more military forces and spread them over more locations and
thus capable of threatening China from more directions. More recently, China
has been deploying its version of active denial strategy to counter American
presence in their backyard. Each move is likely to be met by a countermove. In
such a scenario, the cost advantage of maintaining comparable relative strength
goes to China.
Last, the Trump
administration should bear in mind that over the long term, US military power
is dependent upon the vibrancy of the nation’s economy, the effectiveness of
its system of democratic governance, the caliber of its human capital, and the
scope of its research and development and technological innovation. The global
apportionment of US military forces matters in the short term; decisive over
the long term is the strength of the country’s political and economic
foundation.
I couldn’t summarize this section any
better than the above. The question for all Americans to ponder is this: Are we
Americans so confident of our political and economic foundation that we can go
anywhere around the world and pick fights?
Trade and
Investment Relations
Because trade and investments are of vital national
interests to both parties of the bilateral relations, the Task Force made
detailed and specific recommendations for the Trump Administration. One of
these was to ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership as quickly as possible. Given
that cancelling TPP was virtually the
first act as soon as Trump was sworn into office, it is unlikely that he will
pay any attention to the other recommendations presented in the report.
One exception worth mentioning is Chinese investments
coming into America. Because of favorable economics, Chinese companies are now looking
to set up manufacturing plants in the US. Hopefully the Trump administration
will not cut off one’s own nose and discourage such job creating investments.
Conclusion
The recent Pew survey indicates that Americans’
impression of China has become increasingly negative with time. I attribute
this to, probably unintentional, the conspiracy between media, academics and politicians.
Negative stories about China from the mainstream media invariably outnumber any
warm and fuzzy stories about how well China is doing. It’s almost an industry
rule that negative stories about China sell while positive stories do not.
The 2 to 1 split between academicians with unfavorable
views of China to those more favorable as represented in the Task Force is
probably an accurate measure of the academic circles in the US. I am not sure
why this is so. Possibly professors tend to mentor students of like mind and
help their academic advancement. Young aspiring professors may find espousing
accepted views to help them advance their careers. Thus, bad impressions of
China become self-reinforcing.
The politicians of America find bashing China risk free
and profitable at the polls. They behave irresponsibly and reinforces the
negative feelings of the American people toward China.
I would like to propose a new way of looking at the
bilateral relations. Namely, why getting along with China is in America’s
national interest. I can think of two major reasons. First, about 1/7 of the
earth from Ukraine down through Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and rest of Middle
East to Sub-Sahara, are in turmoil. All kinds of crimes against humanity are
taking place daily. Uncle Sam as the world’s guarantor of security has his
hands full dealing with this region, about 1/8 of the earth surface. Given the runaway
federal budget deficit and military personnel getting weary, why should the US
go look for China or anyone else to turn them into adversaries?
Secondly, China has taken a long-term view by going
around helping other countries build their infrastructure. Improved
infrastructure will stimulate the economy and raise the living standards. These
improvements will have a rippling effect for countries along the upgraded
highway and rail—and give less reason for acts of terrorism. What China is
doing is not what America can do or would like to do, but the two together can
be perfect partners for world peace.
